For the second straight week, the SMU Mustangs are gearing up for a pivotal conference matchup, this time under the Saturday night ACC Network spotlight, as they host the Pittsburgh Panthers in Texas.
Our Pittsburgh vs. SMU prediction offers a complete breakdown, featuring the latest betting odds and insights into each team’s momentum as they make the final push in the 2024 college football season.
Pittsburgh vs. SMU Betting Preview
All Pittsburgh vs. SMU odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Pick ’em - Spread
SMU -7.5 - Moneyline
SMU -305, Pittsburgh +245 - Over/Under
55.5 points - Game Time
8 p.m. ET - Location
Gerald J. Ford Stadium | University Park, TX - Predicted Weather at Kick
74 degrees, rainy, 5 mph winds - How To Watch
ACC Network
They haven’t met since 2012, but SMU heads into Saturday night’s crucial all-ACC encounter with a 3-2-1 all-time lead over Pittsburgh. The last time the Panthers prowled into Texas to face the Mustangs, they fell short in a close-fought game in the Cotton Bowl. Can Pat Narduzzi’s team overcome history and continue their undefeated run through the 2024 campaign?
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
SMU opened the week as a touchdown favorite, and the official line from DraftKings has crept marginally further away from the road team as the week has progressed. Pittsburgh is one of the best teams in the country covering the spread, going 6-1 and twice covering as an underdog. SMU has thrice failed to cover as a favorite during the 2024 season, including last time out.
Pittsburgh’s Winning Probability
Even though the Panthers are undefeated, they haven’t had many truly dominant games — until last week. According to CFN’s FPM, Pittsburgh has a win probability that just slightly favors them (50.6%) in this game, one of three toss-up games in the final five.
- at SMU: 50.6%
- vs. Virginia: 83.5%
- vs. Clemson: 46.6%
- at Louisville: 53.8%
- at Boston College: 70.3%
SMU’s Winning Probability
Conversely, SMU has a 49.4% chance of overcoming the Panthers at home. If the Mustangs can pull out the win on Saturday, they’ll have a decent chance of going undefeated in their inaugural ACC season as they have a greater than 66% chance to win each of their final three games.
- vs. Pittsburgh: 49.4%
- vs. Boston College: 74.2%
- at Virginia: 73.0%
- vs. California: 66.9%
Prediction for Pittsburgh vs. SMU
The Panthers are one of 2024’s more intriguing case studies. Despite often posting postgame win expectancies above 50%, they’ve found themselves on the winning end of a slew of nail-biters—a curious mix of both good fortune in staying undefeated and a hint of misfortune in encountering so many tight games.
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Meanwhile, SMU has been on a steady incline, especially since turning to Kevin Jennings at quarterback.
Initially, I was all in on SMU for this matchup, but the opening Vegas line has made things trickier. Pittsburgh has yet to face a true dual-threat QB this season, with West Virginia being the only team with a mobile playmaker.
Statistically, this matchup is hard to call, especially as both teams come off games defined by turnover extremes, albeit in opposite directions. I don’t expect SMU to cough up six turnovers again, nor do I anticipate Pittsburgh repeating three first-half pick-sixes.
A return to the mean seems likely, even with QB Eli Holstein looking healthy and likely to start for Pitt.
In the end, I have a slight edge in favor of SMU’s defense, especially if Pittsburgh struggles to generate turnovers. I think SMU holds onto the ball, comes up with key defensive stops late, covers the spread, and nudges this game under the total.
Prediction: SMU 31, Pittsburgh 20
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