After an early loss to the BYU Cougars, the SMU Mustangs are rolling and have a chance to put themselves in the driver’s seat to make the ACC Championship Game, should they beat the Pittsburgh Panthers on Saturday.
This Pittsburgh vs. SMU prediction explores two of the more interesting teams in the ACC. Who wins, who covers, and what happens with the total?
Pittsburgh vs. SMU Betting Preview
All Pittsburgh vs. SMU odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, Oct. 27, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Pick ’em - Spread
SMU -7 - Moneyline
SMU -340, Pittsburgh +270 - Over/Under
59.5 points - Game Time
Nov. 2, 8 ET - Location
Gerald J. Ford Stadium | University Park, Texas - Predicted Weather at Kick
74 degrees, rainy, 5 mph winds - How To Watch
ACC Network
Both undefeated in conference play, it’s not surprising that the 7-1 Mustangs are home favorites over the 7-0 Panthers, but the touchdown margin might surprise some. The winner doesn’t necessarily control their own destiny in ACC play, but they would still be in serious contention for the College Football Playoff.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The Mustangs are touchdown favorites. With a total of 59.5 points, Vegas expects a high-scoring game, implying a final score close to 33-26 in favor of the Mustangs.
Pittsburgh’s Winning Probability
Even though the Panthers are undefeated, they haven’t had many truly dominant games — until last week. According to CFN’s FPM, Pittsburgh has a win probability that just slightly favors them (50.6%) in this game, one of three toss-up games in the final five.
- vs. Virginia: 83.5%
- vs. Clemson: 46.6%
- at Louisville: 53.8%
- at Boston College: 70.3%
SMU’s Winning Probability
Conversely, SMU has a 49.4% chance of overcoming the Panthers at home. If the Mustangs can pull out the win on Saturday, they’ll have a decent chance of going undefeated in their inaugural ACC season as they have a greater than 66% chance to win each of their final three games.
- vs. Boston College: 74.2%
- at Virginia: 73.0%
- vs. California: 66.9%
Prediction for Pittsburgh vs. SMU
The Pittsburgh Panthers are a weird case study in 2024. While their postgame win expectancies have been well over 50% in almost every game, they’ve won plenty of close games, an oxymoronic trend that implies that they’ve been extremely lucky to be undefeated and simultaneously unlucky to have played so many close games.
Meanwhile, SMU has simply gotten better every week, especially since making the switch to Kevin Jennings at quarterback.
I was prepared to jump all over SMU in this one, but the initial Vegas line thinks along those lines as well. That makes this extremely difficult to predict. Pittsburgh hasn’t faced a true dual-threat quarterback this season with only West Virginia having a mobile signal-caller.
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There are few statistics to point to in predicting which way this game will go, but both of these teams are coming off games with extreme turnover luck but in opposite directions. I highly doubt the Mustangs will turn the ball over six times again or that Pittsburgh will have three pick-sixes in the first half again, and I think a return to the norm in that category is in the works.
Ultimately, I trust the SMU defense a little more than I trust Pittsburgh’s if they can’t get a few takeaways. I think the SMU offense protects the ball and the defense gets several stops late to cover and force it under the total.
Prediction: SMU 31, Pittsburgh 20
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