The Fresno State Bulldogs hold a narrow 44-39-3 advantage in their all-time series against the San Jose State Spartans. However, the Spartans came out on top in their most recent clash with a decisive 42-18 win.
In our San Jose State vs. Fresno State preview, we dive into the matchup, offer essential betting insights, and provide tips to help you make the best wagering decisions.
San Jose State vs. Fresno State Betting Preview
All San Jose State vs. Fresno State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Fresno State -7 - Spread
Fresno State -6 - Moneyline
Fresno State -218, San Jose State +180 - Over/Under
54.5 points - Game Time
8 p.m. ET, Saturday, Oct. 26 - Location
Valley Children’s Stadium | Fresno, Calif. - Predicted Weather at Kick
79 degrees, 4 mph winds, cloudy - How To Watch
truTV | Max
While the FPM believes the Bulldogs should be a bigger favorite than they are, recent against the spread (ATS) trends paint a different picture.
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Fresno State is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games against Mountain West opponents, and San Jose State is 5-1 ATS in its last six games on the road.
In terms of the total, the under appears to be the play, with it hitting in four of the Spartans’ last six overall and six of the last seven SJSU-Fresno State matchups.
San Jose State’s Winning Probability
With a win in Week 9, the Spartans can secure a bowl bid. Unfortunately, the FPM gives them a 31.2% chance of doing so. In fact, they may not earn their sixth victory until the final game of the season, according to the FPM’s win probabilities:
- at Oregon State: 27.0%
- vs. Boise State: 19.8%
- vs. UNLV: 19.8%
- vs. Stanford: 50.0%
Fresno State’s Winning Probability
On the flip side, Fresno State needs two more wins to go bowling — the program could finish with five more. Beginning with a 68.8% win probability against SJSU, the FPM favors the Bulldogs to leave each of their last five contests victorious:
- vs. Hawaii: 75.1%
- at Air Force: 80.2%
- vs. Colorado State: 66.4%
- at UCLA: 53.8%
Prediction for San Jose State vs. Fresno State
After a two-game slump, Fresno State bounced back with a tight 24-21 victory over Nevada. Meanwhile, San Jose State has alternated results over their last four games, going L-W-L-W—will the pattern hold in Week 9?
That might depend on who takes the snaps.
Emmett Brown started the season as the Spartans’ QB1, but after a rough outing (under 50% completion) against Nevada in Week 6, head coach Ken Niumatalolo opted to bench him for Walker Eget.
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The immediate impact? A narrow 31-24 loss to Colorado State, where Brown returned late to go 8-of-14 for 91 yards and a touchdown. Eget, however, struggled against Wyoming, completing just 20 of 38 attempts with two interceptions.
So, should Eget start? Probably not. Will he? Likely.
Regardless of who’s under center, the Spartans lean heavily on their air attack, averaging 330.3 passing yards per game (sixth nationally) versus a meager 97.4 rushing yards (ninth-fewest). The Bulldogs, meanwhile, have been more balanced—259.3 passing yards (39th) and 116.0 rushing (111th)—though at a lower efficiency.
Going against the FPM here, I’m backing San Jose State. The Spartans might have their own QB issues, but Fresno State isn’t in the clear either. Mikey Keene, once the conference’s top passer, has struggled with eight TDs to nine INTs this season.
Take San Jose State to win and cover, though don’t expect either team to light up the scoreboard and push the total near 55.5 points.
Prediction: San Jose State 27, Fresno State 20
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