The Arkansas Razorbacks may lead the all-time series against the Mississippi State Bulldogs (18-15-1), but the home team has come out on top in the last two meetings. Can they make it three in a row in Week 9?
Our Arkansas vs. Mississippi State preview dives into the matchup, offering key betting insights and helping you make informed wagering decisions.
Arkansas vs. Mississippi State Betting Preview
All Arkansas vs. Mississippi State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Oct. 25, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Arkansas -11 - Spread
Arkansas -7 - Moneyline
Arkansas -250, Mississippi State +205 - Over/Under
56 points - Game Time
12:45 p.m. ET, Saturday, Oct. 26 - Location
Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, Miss. - Predicted Weather at Kick
80 degrees, 4 mph winds, sunny - How To Watch
SEC Network
While the total has only moved by a half-point, the spread has moved 1.5 points toward Mississippi State since opening.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
On the surface, Arkansas backers should be ecstatic, as the Razorbacks are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games. However, they are also 1-5 in their last six against Mississippi State, with the Bulldogs playing up to their competition.
The two teams have been trending in opposite directions regarding the total this season. Arkansas has hit the under in four of their last five, while Mississippi State has hit the over four times in that same span.
Arkansas’ Winning Probability
Arkansas has already tied its win total from last season (four), but there are still five games to go. With a 79.6% win probability against Mississippi State, the Razorbacks could conceivably earn their fifth win in Week 9, but their next could be a few weeks out.
- at Ole Miss: 33.1%
- at Texas: 16.5%
- at Louisiana Tech: 88.6%
- vs. Missouri: 25.4%
Mississippi State’s Winning Probability
The Bulldogs have lost six straight. When looking at the rest of their schedule, there is only one obvious win: vs. UMass in Week 10. After a 20.4% rate against Arkansas, Mississippi State doesn’t have a win probability above 10% in its final three games.
- vs. UMass: 67.7%
- at Tennessee: 2.0%
- vs. Missouri: 9.2%
- at Ole Miss: 4.8%
Prediction for Arkansas vs. Mississippi State
The Bulldogs are winless in their last eight games against SEC opponents—and Saturday is likely to make it 0-9.
Since Blake Shapen’s season-ending injury, freshman Michael Van Buren Jr. has been underwhelming, completing just 53.5% of his passes for 792 yards (6.9 per attempt), with six touchdowns and two interceptions.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
While Taylen Green hasn’t been significantly better for the Razorbacks, he has managed to connect on a few deep throws and added value as a runner. Plus, Arkansas’ offense has been more efficient, converting over 50% of third downs and averaging 454.9 yards per game, compared to Mississippi State’s 379.0.
Even with Arkansas RBs Ja’Quinden Jackson doubtful and Rodney Hill questionable, the Razorbacks should still have an edge against the Bulldogs’ defense.
Prediction: Arkansas 27, Mississippi State 13
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