Nestled in amongst Week 9 games earning more national consideration is an all-AAC clash with potential conference consequences that deserves more attention, as the Tulane Green Wave travels to Denton to take on the North Texas Mean Green.
Our Tulane vs. North Texas prediction breaks down everything you need to know, including the latest betting odds and each team’s chances of success for the remainder of the 2024 college football season.
Tulane vs. North Texas Betting Preview
All Tulane vs. North Texas odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (FPM).
- CFN FPM Spread
Tulane -9 - Spread
Tulane -7.5 - Moneyline
Tulane -325, North Texas +260 - Over/Under
65.5 points - Game time
Noon ET - Location
DATCU Stadium | Denton, TX - Predicted Weather at Kick
85 degrees, mostly sunny and warm, 9 mph winds - How to Watch
ESPN2
It’s a first-ever trip to Denton for the Green Wave, but they do so with two previous wins over North Texas in the only matchups between the programs. Last year marked the first time for the Mean Green in the American Athletic Conference, and Tulane showed them why they’re the program at the forefront of the conference. Is there any reason to suspect any change in 2024?
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Tulane is a touchdown and change favorite by DraftKings, with the CFN FPM having it closer to a score and a field goal. North Texas is 2-1 covering as an underdog this year, including their thriller against the Memphis Tigers last week. Although Tulane is 4-1 covering as a favorite, the safest bet to take here is the over on the points total.
Only one UNT game has gone under the line in 2024.
Tulane’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Tulane has a 74.9% chance of beating North Texas on Saturday afternoon. Our metric has accurately reflected the Green Wave’s 2024 season so far, with the defeats to the Kansas State Wildcats and Oklahoma Sooners forecasted alongside their five wins in this campaign.
The remaining win probabilities for Tulane in the 2024 season can be found below:
- at North Texas: 74.9%
- at Charlotte: 81.1%
- vs. Temple: 85.9%
- at Navy: 52.5%
- vs. Memphis 52.5%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Green Wave would finish with a 10-2 overall and a perfect AAC record, facilitating a return to the conference championship game. The CFN FPM currently gives Tulane a 33.7% chance of winning the AAC, which would put them in the hunt for a playoff spot.
North Texas’ Winning Probability
Conversely, North Texas has just a 25.1% chance of beating the Green Wave on Saturday afternoon. In good news for Mean Green fans, our metric has been wrong once for the program this season, favoring the South Alabama Jaguars in a season-opening clash that yielded a 52-38 win for Eric Morris’ side.
The remaining win probabilities for North Texas in the 2024 season can be found below:
- vs. Tulane: 25.1%
- vs. Army: 33.1%
- at UTSA: 50%
- vs. East Carolina: 61.1%
- at Temple: 53.4%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, North Texas would end the 2024 season with an 8-4 record, a considerable turnaround from the previous campaign. However, that record presumes a road win in a coin-flip game against the UTSA Roadrunners. Nonetheless, bowl eligibility should be attainable.
Prediction for Tulane vs. North Texas
Get set for an AAC thriller on Saturday afternoon when 5-2 Tulane takes on 5-2 North Texas with conference championship permutations very much at play. The Green Wave is undefeated in the AAC under new head coach Jon Sumrall. North Texas, with just one conference loss, is still very much in play.
Will that still be the case when the final whistle blows on Saturday? Tulane is the favored team, but can North Texas cause an upset? Who’s got the edge, and where will the key battles unfold?
If you’re an offensive aficionado (and, honestly, who isn’t?), this game is 100% a must-watch. North Texas has been one of the most dangerous offensive teams in the country this fall, ranking ninth nationally and second in the AAC with 41.3 points per game. It’s easy to say statistics can be inflated, but there have been just two games where the Mean Green hasn’t hit 40 points.
The influence of offensive coordinator Jordan Davis is easy to see. He’s been responsible for some of the most high-octane units in recent memory and the 2024 North Texas offense is no exception. Quarterback Chandler Morris leads the nation in pass attempts (294) while leading the AAC in passing yards (2,424) and touchdowns (23) through Week 8 of the season.
As a result, the program has nine players with double-digit receptions, led by former Washington State Cougars WR DT Sheffield (565 yards, nine touchdowns). The matchup between the North Texas pass game and a Tulane defense that leads the AAC in interceptions (10), ranks second in turnover margin per game (+1.57), and third for total sacks (18) will be decisive.
North Texas has its own disruptive presence on defense in the form of defensive back Ridge Texada (five pass breakups, one interception), but as a whole, the Mean Green defense is a lick or two behind the Green Wave with defensive playmakers like Patrick Jenkins and Adin Huntington hurrying at the point of attack.
A Mean Green unit allowing 4.4 yards per carry that ranks 10th in the AAC may struggle against running back Makhi Hughes (744 yards, 10 total scores) and a run-heavy Tulane offense. At the same time, Darian Mensah is a blossoming young QB who leads the AAC in yards per attempt, giving Tulane a multi-faceted offense that can be difficult to contain.
Tulane likely has the edge here, but it should be a fun one to engross the college football casual on Saturday afternoon.
Prediction: Tulane 37, North Texas 33
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