To the angst of some, Deion Sanders’ Colorado Buffaloes squad is finding consistent success in a tumultuous Big 12. The same could probably be said about Scott Satterfield’s Cincinnati Bearcats team.
The teams that combined to go 9-17 in their respective head coaches’ first year are each 5-2 and play Saturday night to become bowl-eligible in Year 2. Find out which team we think has the advantage in this Cincinnati vs. Colorado prediction.
Cincinnati vs. Colorado Betting Preview
All Cincinnati vs. Colorado odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Oct. 21, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Colorado -5.5 - Spread
Colorado -4.5 - Moneyline
Colorado -192, Cincinnati +160 - Over/Under
57 points - Game Time
Oct. 26, 10:15 p.m. ET - Location
Folsom Field | Boulder, Colo. - Predicted Weather at Kick
59 degrees, clear, five mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
The early spread is Colorado -4.5. The public has bet this up slightly, as the line was posted at -4. With a total of 57 points, Vegas’ numbers imply a score close to 31-26 in favor of the Buffaloes.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Cincinnati’s Winning Probability
FPM is closely aligned with the Vegas spread, giving Cincinnati a 35.9% chance to win the game, translating to an implied spread of about 5.5 points. The Bearcats have a difficult schedule, as they’re currently underdogs in four of five remaining games.
Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Colorado: 34.9%
- vs. West Virginia: 47.2%
- at Iowa State: 17.9%
- at Kansas State: 19.8%
- vs. TCU: 50.4%
Colorado’s Winning Probability
The Buffaloes are off to a better start than last year but only slightly, and thoughts of 2023’s late-season collapse could linger. The Buffaloes have a 65.1% chance to win Saturday, making it their easiest remaining game. While they’ll be favorites in four of five remaining games, three have spreads of three or fewer points.
Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Cincinnati: 65.1%
- at Texas Tech: 46.2%
- vs. Utah: 50.4%
- at Kansas: 57.4%
- vs. Oklahoma State: 57.4%
Prediction for Cincinnati vs. Colorado
Two things can be true: 1) Both Colorado and Cincinnati are off to excellent starts under oft-scrutinized second-year coaches, and 2) there’s a real possibility the early success could be a mirage.
The FPM projections show how important this game is, not just from a numbers perspective but from a program narrative perspective. The winner Saturday will secure bowl eligibility with the potential to do even better, given a schedule with multiple winnable games.
The loser will fall to 5-3, with several losable remaining games. Cincinnati, in particular, would like to win its sixth game sooner rather than later as the combination of an unpredictable West Virginia team and road games at two Big 12 Championship contenders are daunting.
That’s a lot of narrative-building that I think is necessary in this coaching matchup.
On the field, I decided to ignore any Colorado hot takes before the season and simply enjoy the roller coaster. Here’s what we know about the Buffaloes:
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The defense is substantially improved from last year, but the offensive line isn’t, and the lack of balance on offense is concerning. That being said, the defensive improvement has allowed the Buffaloes to have a few stress-free second halves, and they even rested Travis Hunter after halftime last week.
For Cincinnati, Brendan Sorsby has been excellent, much better than I anticipated. The Bearcats have been quiet this year, and I don’t have a great feel for them.
What I do know is that I’m a believer in Colorado’s defense, and of course, in Hunter and Shedeur Sanders. I think the Vegas line is about right, but I see value in the under, as Cincinnati has played its share of low-scoring affairs. I’ll lean to the Buffaloes, but I really like going under the total.
Prediction: Colorado 27, Cincinnati 21
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