No one outside of Provo, Utah could have guessed that the BYU Cougars would be the cream of the Big 12 crop in 2024. Now 7-0, the Cougars survived a scary Oklahoma State game after the yearly Mike Gundy midseason adjustment. But there’s not time to breathe as BYU goes on the road to face the UCF Knights.
UCF made a quarterback change in a desperate effort to improve its sinking season, and the early returns are positive. Find out if we think BYU can win and cover in this BYU vs. UCF prediction.
BYU vs. UCF Betting Preview
All BYU vs. UCF odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Oct. 21, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
BYU -13.5 - Spread
BYU -2 - Moneyline
BYU -125, UCF +105 - Over/Under
55 points - Game Time
Oct. 26, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
FBC Mortgage Stadium | Orlando, Fla. - Predicted Weather at Kick
81 degrees, partly cloudy, 10 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
The early spread is BYU -2, which seems low, and it’s also close to the important number of -3. The public has bet this up slightly, as the line was posted at some books at -1 or -1.5.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
With a total of 55 points, Vegas’ numbers imply a score close to 28-26 in favor of BYU.
BYU’s Winning Probability
FPM thinks the Cougars have a clear advantage here, giving them an 83.5% chance to win the game, translating to an implied spread of about 13.5 points. The Cougars have a real chance to go undefeated this season, with the Holy War against Utah looming large as their toughest remaining game.
Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at UCF: 83.5%
- at Utah: 65.1%
- vs. Kansas: 89.1%
- at Arizona State: 74.2%
- vs. Houston: 94.9%
UCF’s Winning Probability
UCF’s quarterback change didn’t move the needle much with FPM, as the metric still has the Knights as 13.5-point underdogs. The Knights have a 16.5% chance to win the game and will be underdogs in every remaining game, at this time.
Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. BYU: 16.5%
- vs. Arizona: 38.1%
- at Arizona State: 28.4%
- at West Virginia: 25.4%
- at Utah: 22.6%
Prediction for BYU vs. UCF
The FPM has been substantially lower on UCF than Vegas has all year.
So far, FPM has the advantage.
After a promising start to the year against non-Power Four competition and a TCU team we now know has serious defensive issues, UCF is on a four-game losing streak, though the Knights covered in a near upset over Iowa State last week.
In the middle of that losing streak, the Knights made a quarterback change to Jacurri Brown, who flashed as a passer against Cincinnati and a runner against Iowa State. That could serve him well against a BYU defense that just struggled to contain Oklahoma State’s Garret Rangel.
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In a way, the Knights are similar to the Oklahoma State Cowboys team that just took BYU to the brink, with one key difference. That Cowboys team has been decent against the pass and is one of the country’s worst against the run.
This Knights defense is decent against the run and one of the worst teams in the country against the pass.
If there’s any team built to take advantage of that fact, it’s BYU.
Last week, Kalani Sitake’s squad went into halftime down seven points, then scored back-to-back touchdowns to start the second half after running the ball nine straight plays. When it came time to throw, though, the Cougars moved the ball with ease, scoring the game-winning touchdown on an eight-play, 75-yard touchdown drive in just 1:03 of game time.
The dynamic duo of Darius Lassiter and Chase Roberts gained a third member last week in deep threat Keelan Marion. The Knights really struggle with the deep ball, and Marion can take the top off. Don’t expect Jake Retzlaff to have another game like last week’s 13-for-26 outing against this UCF defense.
BYU is the better team by far, and while it wouldn’t shock me to see the Cougars slip up at some point, this isn’t the week to expect that. Even on the road, back the better team and expect Sitake to be prepared yet again.
I actually think the Cougars win rather easily. BYU has a tendency to choke out its opposition but also aren’t afraid to score late even with the outcome already determined. I don’t feel strongly about the total, but these teams like to score late, so let’s lean toward the over.
Prediction: BYU 37, UCF 24
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