The Oregon Ducks have ascended to the pole position of the AP Poll, but the story on Saturday is the Illinois Fighting Illini, who currently have a chance to make the College Football Playoff, especially with an easy November schedule.
An upset win for Bert Bielema’s squad would put them in prime position for premier postseason play. Can the Ducks defend their home turf and stave off a hungry Illini squad? Find out which way we lean in this Illinois vs. Oregon prediction.
Illinois vs. Oregon Betting Preview
All Illinois vs. Oregon odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, Oct. 20, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Oregon -16 - Spread
Oregon -21.5 - Moneyline
Oregon -2100, Illinois +1100 - Over/Under
55.5 points - Game Time
Saturday, Oct. 26, 3:30 ET - Location
Autzen Stadium | Eugene, Ore. - Predicted Weather at Kick
62 degrees, rainy, 7 mph winds - How To Watch
CBS
The early spread is Oregon -21.5, as Illinois’ offense can struggle against strong competition. But this spread is more about the Ducks’ might rather than the Illini’s deficiencies. With a total of 55.5 points, the Vegas numbers imply a score close to 38-17.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Illinois’ Winning Probability
The Fighting Illini have just an 11.0% chance to win the game, per FPM, translating to an implied spread of about 21.5 points. This game represents Illinois’ toughest challenge of the rest of the year and it’s not particularly close.
Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Oregon: 11.0%
- vs. Minnesota: 73.4%
- vs. Michigan State: 78.1%
- at Rutgers: 64.6%
- at Northwestern: 81.6%
Oregon’s Winning Probability
FPM is a bit lower on the Ducks in this one, as the metric has them as 16-point favorites. The Ducks have an 89.0% chance to win the game. The Ducks will be heavy favorites in every remaining game and have close to a 58% chance to finish the year undefeated.
Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Illinois: 89.0%
- at Michigan: 83.0%
- vs. Maryland: 95.9%
- at Wisconsin: 85.9%
- vs. Washington: 94.5%
Prediction for Illinois vs. Oregon
Look at the winning probabilities for Illinois.
A win on Saturday puts the Illini in a prime position to finish the year at 11-1 with Big Ten Football Championship Game and College Football Playoff berths. This is a huge game, perhaps one of the biggest in school history.
The issue is that, on paper, the Ducks are substantially more talented. The Ducks haven’t come close to reaching their offensive potential, though we’ve seen glimpses of how precise the passing attack can be.
That being said, Illinois has the ability to make this ugly. Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel is good for one or two bad throws a game, and the Illini have the defensive talent to make him pay.
Bielema excels at mucking up games and taking more talented teams out of their element. He usually doesn’t have the offensive talent to take full advantage, though, and that’s where I land here.
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Even if Illinois outplays Oregon for most of the game, the Illini lack the offensive firepower to push Oregon all the way to the brink. I love the under as a play here as I think Illinois relies on its strong red-zone defense to keep Oregon out of the end zone. The Ducks have struggled at times to finish drives this year, but so far, it hasn’t truly hurt them.
There’s too much firepower on this Ducks offense and too much talent on this Ducks defense for Illinois to pull off an improbable upset, but that doesn’t mean Oregon will coast. Expect it to look dicey midway through before the Ducks pull away late. I don’t think this will go over, and while I ultimately think the Ducks win rather comfortably, I think Illinois covers and wouldn’t be totally shocked if the Illini pulled off an outright upset.
Prediction: Oregon 27, Illinois 13
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