Both the Missouri Tigers and Alabama Crimson Tide must feel like they’re playing below their potential after several underwhelming performances, but each can still accomplish all of their goals this season.
But the loser Saturday will feel like it has been punched in the gut, and the anxiety will continue to build. Find out who we think survives in this Missouri vs. Alabama prediction.
Missouri vs. Alabama Betting Preview
All Missouri vs. Alabama odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, Oct. 20, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Alabama -8.5 - Spread
Alabama -13.5 - Moneyline
Alabama -550, Missouri +400 - Over/Under
56.5 points - Game Time
Saturday, Oct. 26, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Bryant-Denny Stadium | Tuscaloosa, Ala. - Predicted Weather at Kick
82 degrees, sunny, 5 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
The early spread makes Alabama an early two-touchdown favorite, so it will be interesting to see how this one moves throughout the week.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
The Vegas spread of 13.5 and a total of 56.5 points implies a score close to 35-21 in favor of the Crimson Tide, which would be much higher scoring than any of Alabama or Missouri’s recent games this season.
Missouri’s Winning Probability
FPM is a bit higher on Missouri’s chances than the Vegas spread by about five points. The Tigers have a 25.1% chance to win the game, per the metric, translating to an implied spread of about 8.5 points. This game represents Missouri’s toughest challenge of the year, and the Tigers have a good chance to win out if they can beat the Crimson Tide.
Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Alabama: 25.1%
- vs. Oklahoma: 77.4%
- at South Carolina: 63.6%
- at Mississippi State: 90.8%
- vs. Arkansas: 74.6%
Alabama’s Winning Probability
Conversely, the Crimson Tide has a 74.9% chance to win the game, per the metric, translating to an implied spread of about 8.5 points. This game represents Alabama’s second-toughest challenge of the year, as the Crimson Tide head to Baton Rouge, La., next week.
Here are Alabama’s winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Missouri: 74.9%
- at LSU: 46.6%
- vs. Mercer: 99.9%
- at Oklahoma: 80.2%
- vs. Auburn: 94.1%
Prediction for Missouri vs. Alabama
Neither of these teams is likely feeling particularly confident after ugly games on Saturday. The difference here is that the Tigers escaped with a win while Alabama fell on the road to Tennessee.
Interestingly, even as a stats nerd and “football guy,” I’m having trouble pinpointing exactly what the issue is for each team. There’s not one area of either team on which you can pin the majority of the blame.
That makes this game extremely difficult to predict.
On one hand, Alabama has underperformed against Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and Tennessee since a huge win over Georgia, failing to cover in all three and underperforming the spread by an average of 18 points a game.
On the other, Missouri is 5-1 but has escaped its three Power Four games by one score, including Saturday’s 21-17 win over Auburn in which it led for less than two minutes.
The advanced metrics tend to think Alabama has gotten a bit unlucky, as the Crimson Tide played much closer games against Vanderbilt and South Carolina than the postgame win expectancy suggests, while Missouri has outperformed its postgame win expectancy in six of seven games, suggesting an eventual regression.
Basically, in looking at the advanced metrics, Alabama and Missouri are both due for regression but in opposite directions.
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That being said, I don’t think the matchups support that this week. Both secondaries have shown a susceptibility to the deep ball. Alabama is at home, where Kalen DeBoer is 77-1 in his career, so I don’t think the Crimson Tide are in danger of losing outright, but I think Missouri frustrates quarterback Jalen Milroe and can keep this close until the end.
Expect a low-scoring, decent game.
Prediction: Alabama 28, Missouri 20
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