With the UCF Knights joining the conference just last year, Week 8’s contest marks their first-ever matchup with the Iowa State Cyclones. If the spread is any indication, it won’t be a welcoming experience in Ames, Iowa.
Dive into the latest betting odds, spread analysis, and our top pick in this UCF vs. Iowa State prediction before Saturday’s Big 12 battle.
UCF vs. Iowa State Betting Preview
All UCF vs. Iowa State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Oct. 17, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Iowa State -13 - Spread
Iowa State -13.5 - Moneyline
Iowa State -600, UCF +440 - Over/Under
50 points - Game Time
7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Oct. 19 - Location
Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, Iowa - Predicted Weather at Kick
66 degrees, 8 mph winds, clear - How To Watch
FS1
While the spread has increased by a point and a half in favor of Iowa State since opening, the real mover has been the total, which started at 46.5.
That’s good news for the under, which has hit in four of UCF’s last five games on the road and 10 of the Cyclones’ last 13 at home.
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Even if the spread has grown, the trends are still on the home team’s side:
- Iowa State is 5-0 ATS in the last five contests overall.
- The Cyclones are 4-1 ATS in their last five against Big 12 opponents.
UCF’s Winning Probability
If the spread didn’t make it clear, the Knights aren’t expected to leave Ames with a W. In fact, the FPM gives them a 17.2% chance of producing such an outcome. But it’s not all bleak for the black and gold, as that’s their lowest win probability across their final six games:
- vs. BYU: 24.5%
- vs. Arizona: 35.4%
- at Arizona State: 35.4%
- at West Virginia: 25.8%
- at Utah: 19.4%
Iowa State’s Winning Probability
The 6-0 Cyclones will likely be 7-0 this time next week — 82.8% likely, to be exact. According to the FPM, they may not run into any real trouble until a road trip against the Utah Utes in the penultimate game of the season.
- vs. Texas Tech: 73.4%
- at Kansas: 79.3%
- vs. Cincinnati: 83.3%
- at Utah: 48.8%
- vs. Kansas State: 63.1%
Prediction for UCF vs. Iowa State
Currently on a three-game losing streak, head coach Gus Malzahn has his work cut out for him this week. He made major moves in the transfer portal, but the biggest one has also been the biggest failure: former Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson.
Malzahn benched Jefferson in favor of true freshman EJ Colson last week … for all of four throws. Then, a new starter and former Miami passer, Jacurri Brown, entered. While he provided a spark against Cincinnati, Iowa State has had a week to prepare for his dual-threat skill set.
The Cyclones have won five of their six games by double digits, and Week 8 should be no different. They are fourth in the FBS with a +9 turnover differential, while UCF is tied for 95th at -3.
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Additionally, the Knights are tied for 115th in sacks allowed (3.0 per game), and Iowa State is tied for 10th in the same metric (0.83 per game). With Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel on pace to become the first WRs in program history to generate 1,000 yards in the same season, the passing game should have no issues generating an early lead.
The Cyclones’ moneyline won’t net much profit, but they should cover with ease. Yet, the under is the safest play, with Iowa State likely getting out to an early lead and chewing the clock from then on. Plus, UCF’s offense, even with Brown under center, won’t be able to score enough to make up the difference.
Prediction: Iowa State 31, UCF 10
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