The Georgia State Panthers and Marshall Thundering Herd have met just twice, each taking a win in the past two years. Who will gain the upper hand in 2024?
Dive into the latest betting odds, spread analysis, and our top pick in this Georgia State vs. Marshall prediction before Thursday’s Sun Belt clash.
Georgia State vs. Marshall Betting Preview
All Georgia State vs. Marshall odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Oct. 17, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Marshall -4.5 - Spread
Marshall -9 - Moneyline
Marshall -325, Georgia State +260 - Over/Under
51.5 points - Game Time
7:00 p.m. ET, Thursday, Oct. 17 - Location
Joan C. Edwards Stadium, Huntington, W. Va. - Predicted Weather at Kick
58 degrees, 3 mph winds, sunny - How To Watch
ESPN2
Although the spread has remained stagnant, after opening at 48.5, the total has risen to 51.5.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
That makes the under an even sweeter play, especially when taking into account the following trends:
- The total has gone UNDER in five of Georgia State’s last six games on the road.
- The total has gone UNDER in four of Marshall’s last six contests.
As far as the spread, all signs point to the Thundering Herd, who are 5-0-1 ATS this season and 5-0 in their last five home bouts. Meanwhile, Georgia State is a lackluster 1-4 ATS in 2024.
Georgia State’s Winning Probability
Although the Panthers’ win over Vanderbilt has become increasingly impressive with each passing week, they are still 2-3, with their only other win coming against FCS-level Chattanooga.
As a result, the FPM gives Georgia State a 36.9% chance of defeating Marshall in Week 8. In fact, the program only has one game above a 50% win probability for the rest of the season:
- at App State: 46.2%
- at UConn: 47.2%
- at James Madison: 11.0%
- vs. Arkansas State: 51.2%
- at Texas State: 11.9%
- vs. Coastal Carolina: 49.6%
Marshall’s Winning Probability
Although the FPM has the spread tighter than the sportsbooks, it still has Marshall sitting pretty with a 63.1% win probability. And outside of an end-of-season battle with James Madison, the final stretch doesn’t appear to be all that difficult either:
- vs. UL-Monroe: 49.4%
- at Southern Miss: 61.9%
- vs. Coastal Carolina: 57.4%
- at Old Dominion: 63.1%
- at James Madison: 16.7%
Prediction for Georgia State vs. Marshall
The Thundering Herd are reeling after one of their toughest losses this season. They entered the fourth quarter against Georgia Southern with a 23-3 lead, only to allow 21 unanswered points, falling to 3-3 on the year.
Now, they face a Panthers team that averages 21.4 points per game (111th in the FBS) and gives up 29.4 (99th)—a prime opportunity for a bounce-back.
Georgia State’s game script has pushed them into a 61% pass rate this season, but QB Christian Veilleux has struggled, completing just 58.6% of his passes at 6.5 yards per attempt.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Marshall, meanwhile, has a QB dilemma of its own, though self-inflicted. Head coach Charles Huff chose Stone Earle as the starter, despite Tulsa transfer Braylon Braxton outperforming him with a higher completion rate (61% to 54.8%), better yards per attempt (8.9 to 5.5), and the same number of TDs (7) without any interceptions (compared to Earle’s two).
Still, the QB choice may not matter much against the Panthers. The Thundering Herd should protect their home turf. Take Marshall’s moneyline, but with Georgia State potentially covering the nine-point spread, opting for the under could be the safer play in this Sun Belt showdown.
Prediction: Marshall 31, Georgia State 17
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