With the all-time series tied at 3-3, either the TCU Horned Frogs or Utah Utes will pull away with a victory on Saturday night.
Our TCU vs. Utah prediction breaks down the matchup, highlights key betting tips, and guides you on where to place your wagers.
TCU vs. Utah Betting Preview
All TCU vs. Utah odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Oct. 14, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Utah -10.5 - Spread
Utah -6.5 - Moneyline
Utah -265, TCU +215 - Over/Under
52 points - Game Time
10:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Oct. 19 - Location
Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, Utah - Predicted Weather at Kick
49 degrees, 5 mph winds, partly cloudy - How To Watch
ESPN
The total has shot up from 46.5 at opening to 52, with Utah QB Cam Rising’s out-for-season announcement likely playing a role after he completed just 43.2% of his passes with no TDs and three INTs last week.
Both of these squads have struggled against the spread, with TCU going 1-6 in its last seven games and Utah going 1-4 in its last five.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
In terms of the total, there are two trends to note:
- The over has hit in each of TCU’s last five road games.
- The under has hit in seven of Utah’s last eight contests.
TCU’s Winning Probability
TCU is 3-3 on the year and 1-2 in the conference, and according to the FPM, there are few wins left on their schedule. After a 21.9% win probability against Utah, the Horned Frogs only have one game above 50% in their final stretch.
- at Texas Tech: 47.2%
- vs. Baylor: 50.4%
- at Oklahoma State: 49.2%
- at Arizona: 38.1%
- vs. Cincinnati: 49.6%
Utah’s Winning Probability
Without Rising, the Utes are sitting at a strong 78.1% win probability this week, and opposite of the Horned Frogs, they’re favored to come out on top in all but one of their last five matchups.
- at Houston: 85.1%
- vs. BYU: 50.0%
- at Colorado: 64.1%
- vs. Iowa State: 51.2%
- at UCF: 71.6%
Prediction for TCU vs. Utah
Outside Rising’s outgoing battle with injuries, the Utes’ biggest opponent this season has been the Grand Valley State, as Arizona and Arizona State handed them back-to-back losses over the last two weeks.
However, with true freshman Isaac Wilson now fully entrenched as the starter, Utah can looked forward to a future that — hopefully for them — includes a Big 12 title berth in their first year in the conference.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
TCU is toward the bottom of the league, largely thanks to losses to Houston and UCF, which don’t look particularly great with both programs dealing with their own turmoils. Horned Frogs QB Josh Hoover has flashed under center and kept his team in games, but that ground game hasn’t done much to aid his efforts.
The opposite has been the case for the Utes, with Wilson throwing more picks (6) than TDs (7) and RB Micah Bernard (103-676-2 rushing line) having to carry the roster to their 4-0 start.
Hoover and Co. will face their toughest test yet, as the Utes’ D has allowed just 290.7 yards (17th) and 17 points (T-18th) per game this season — and that PPG figure would be lower were it not for the offense’s turnover output.
But there are three other areas that could prove to be TCU’s downfall in this one.
Turnover differential:
- Utah, -3
- TCU, -10
Time of possession:
- Utah, 34:57
- TCU, 28:26
Penalty yards per game:
- Utah, 37
- TCU, 71
Despite the questions under center, take the Utes to win and cover at home, with the under hitting in Salt Lake City.
Prediction: Utah 27, TCU 17
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