The New Mexico State Aggies host the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs in Las Cruces for a Tuesday night CUSA showdown between two teams headed in opposite directions. Will the game follow the expected script, or could there be an upset brewing under the night sky?
In our Louisiana Tech vs. New Mexico State prediction, we cover all the key details, from the latest betting odds to each team’s prospects for the rest of the 2024 college football season.
Louisiana Tech vs. New Mexico State Betting Preview
All Louisiana Tech vs. New Mexico State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Louisiana Tech -5 - Spread
Louisiana Tech -11.5 - Moneyline
Louisiana Tech -440, New Mexico State +340 - Over/Under
49 points - Game time
9 p.m. ET - Location
Aggie Memorial Stadium | Las Cruces, NM - Predicted Weather at Kick
55 degrees, clear to partly cloudy, 7 mph winds - How to Watch
ESPNU
Louisiana Tech returns to Las Cruces for the first time in over a decade, but it’s a place that has been a happy hunting ground recently for the Bulldogs. They won on the last three trips to Aggie Memorial Stadium, and their last loss was in New Mexico in 2006. Although the Aggies won a tight game in Ruston last October, this New Mexico State team is not as good as in 2023.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
As a result, Tony Sanchez’s team has only covered once this year, against Liberty in Week 2. They’ve been a double-digit underdog four times with a 1-3 record against the spread in those encounters. Louisiana Tech is 3-2 against the spread in 2024, with a 2-2 spread record as a favorite. When they cover, they win, and both eventualities should be in play on Tuesday night.
Louisiana Tech’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Louisiana Tech has a 63.6% chance of beating New Mexico State on Tuesday night. That gives the Bulldogs a better chance than in their game against Middle Tennessee a week ago, which they won convincingly.
Here are the Louisiana Tech win probabilities for the rest of the 2024 season:
- at New Mexico State: 63.6%
- vs. UTEP: 73.8%
- at Sam Houston: 34.3%
- vs. Jacksonville State: 47.5%
- at Western Kentucky: 23.4%
- vs. Arkansas: 17.2%
- vs. Kennesaw State: 79.9%
If these win probabilities hold true, Louisiana Tech will end the season with a 5-7 record, missing bowl eligibility for the fifth season in a row. However, with a 47.5% win probability against the Jacksonville Gamecocks, there is a chance to hit six wins this fall.
New Mexico State’s Winning Probability
The CFN FPM gives New Mexico State just a 36.4% chance of winning, which is actually a better win probability than the oddsmakers offer.
Here are the win probabilities for the rest of the Aggies’ season:
- vs. Louisiana Tech: 36.4%
- at FIU: 29.7%
- vs. Western Kentucky: 17.2%
- at Texas A&M: 0.1%
- at Middle Tennessee: 35.5%
- vs. UTEP: 52.8%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, New Mexico State will end the season with a 2-10 record, a dramatic comedown from the success of a year ago. Their only projected win down the stretch is against UTEP.
Prediction for Louisiana Tech vs. New Mexico State
After kicking off the 2024 season with a win over Southeast Missouri State, things have gone downhill for New Mexico State, who head into this Tuesday night CUSA matchup with a 1-5 record and three conference losses.
Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech comes into Las Cruces riding high after their best showing of the season—a commanding Week 7 victory over the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders.
Can the Aggies turn their season around with a win on Tuesday night? Or are the Bulldogs starting to build something special as Sonny Cumbie looks to solidify his long-term future? Who has the upper hand, and where will the key battles take place?
New Mexico State has struggled to recover from the talent exodus through the transfer portal following their 2023 success, particularly feeling the loss of quarterback Diego Pavia.
With an offense averaging just 18.5 points per game, the quarterback duo of Parker Awad and Santino Marucci has failed to ignite any spark.
One bright spot for the Aggies has been Seth McGowan, who’s averaging 5.4 yards per carry with two touchdowns and 392 rushing yards. However, Louisiana Tech’s defense has been stout, allowing only five rushing touchdowns all season and holding opponents to 2.91 yards per carry.
The Bulldogs’ run defense ranks 14th nationally and tops CUSA.
New Mexico State’s lack of offensive firepower makes it difficult to see them overcoming Louisiana Tech’s defense. Kolbe Fields is likely to be a key player, leading the Bulldogs with 5.5 tackles for loss, while defensive back Demarcus Griffin-Taylor is another playmaker to watch, leading the team in tackles and making an impact in pass coverage.
Louisiana Tech’s defense alone could secure the win, but they’ve also found their quarterback in freshman Evan Bullock. In his two starts (and four appearances), he’s completed 70.6% of his passes, with 8.8% of them resulting in touchdowns, throwing for 557 yards at an average of 8.2 yards per attempt.
Keep an eye on WR Tru Edwards, who’s primed for a big game.
Prediction: Louisiana Tech 31, New Mexico State 14
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