The marquee matchup of the Friday night slate sees the Oklahoma State Cowboys ride into Provo looking to overcome a rampant BYU Cougars team. One of these teams was touted as the heir to the Big 12 throne in a post-college football realignment landscape, but it’s Kilani Sitake’s team with College Football Playoff aspirations heading into the Week 8 clash.
Can the Cowboys find their mojo, or will the Cougars continue to roll? Our Oklahoma State vs. BYU prediction holds all the answers.
Oklahoma State vs. BYU Betting Preview
All Georgia vs. Texas odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Oct. 16, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
BYU -10 - Spread
BYU -9.5 - Moneyline
BYU -310, Oklahoma State +250 - Over/Under
53 points - Game Time
10:15 p.m. ET - Location
LaVell Edwards Stadium | Provo, UT - Predicted Weather at Kick
48 degrees, partly sunny, six mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
BYU started the week as an 8.5-point favorite, but as the week progressed, the official oddsmaker’s line closed on the original CFN FPM spread. Meanwhile, the moneyline has widened in favor of the Cougars as the team aims for a seventh win of the 2024 college football campaign. BYU is one of only two teams in the country with a perfect spread record heading into the game.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Meanwhile, Oklahoma State is 2-4 against the spread and failed to cover (by a substantial margin) in the only game where they’ve been an underdog this season. You won’t find many more explicit trend pointers toward an inevitable outcome than that. Although the teams have hit the over more often than not this year, Oklahoma State hasn’t scored more than 20 points in their last three.
Oklahoma State’s Winning Probability
FPM isn’t very high on the Cowboys after three straight losses. Per the metric, the Cowboys have a 23.4% chance to win the game, translating to an implied spread of about 10 points. If the Cowboys can pull off the upset, they can salvage the season with a favorable late-year schedule.
Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at BYU: 23.4%
- at Baylor: 64.6%
- vs. Arizona State: 50.8%
- at TCU: 57.4%
- vs. Texas Tech: 51.8%
- at Colorado: 53.4%
BYU’s Winning Probability
Conversely, the Cougars have a 76.6% chance to win the game. This game represents BYU’s second-toughest challenge left on the schedule, and the Cougars can continue a magical season if they beat Oklahoma State.
Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Oklahoma State: 76.6%
- at UCF: 81.1%
- at Utah: 50.0%
- vs. Kansas: 87.8%
- at Arizona State: 74.6%
- vs. Houston: 93.5%
Prediction for Oklahoma State vs. BYU
Oklahoma State arrives in Provo at a pivotal point in their season. After three straight defeats, the Cowboys have the potential to spiral into obscurity but Mike Gundy has a knack for stacking wins and rescuing an element of respectability.
LaVell Edwards is one of the most intimidating environments in college football, even when the team is just okay, and home-field advantage can’t be understated for the Cougars. A Friday night kick for an undefeated team? That stadium will be rocking.
Not only that, the Cougars are firing on all cylinders. It’s been led by a defense that has excelled at taking away the opposition’s top option. While that should be Ollie Gordon for the Cowboys, that’s been Alan Bowman throwing to a talented receiver trio this year.
While hit or miss so far, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Oklahoma State offense put together a better game Friday, but it might now matter.
FREE: Sign up for the College Football Network Newsletter to receive unique stories from the world of college football directly to your inbox!
Oklahoma State’s defense is in shambles, and as the BYU offense has slowly improved over the course of the season, that’s the side of the ball that I see the most significant mismatch.
I expect BYU to control the clock and wear down an awful Oklahoma State run defense. Like they’ve done so often this year, look for the Cougars to pull away late after frustrating Oklahoma State early.
Take the Cougars and the points, while it stays just under the total.
Prediction: BYU 31, Oklahoma State 17
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.