If seeing the Texas Longhorns and Georgia Bulldogs square off as SEC rivals feels unfamiliar, it’s time to get comfortable. This matchup could very well be a preview of the SEC Championship Game.
The Bulldogs have battled through a series of tough tests, while the Longhorns have enjoyed a more straightforward path. But does that make Texas the better pick?
Our Georgia vs. Texas prediction breaks down the latest odds, win probabilities, and a score forecast for one of Week 8’s most anticipated showdowns.
Georgia vs. Texas Betting Preview
All Georgia vs. Texas odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 19, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas -4.5 - Spread
Texas -4 - Moneyline
Texas -175, Georgia +145 - Over/Under
57 points - Game Time
7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Texas Memorial Stadium | Austin, TX - Predicted Weather at Kick
78 degrees, rainy, 10 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
Although the spread started with Texas as a three-point favorite, as the week progressed, the line moved closer to the original number presented by the CFN FPM. All of the Longhorns’ previous wins over the Bulldogs have been by more points than that, and they’ve covered the spread by 8.1 points this season on their way to a 5-1 spread record.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Meanwhile, Georgia has covered the spread just once this year — the season-opening beatdown of the Clemson Tigers. As such, all signs point toward a Longhorns cover on Saturday night. However, our Georgia vs. Texas prediction explains why you should be cautious about throwing your life savings behind Steve Sarkisian’s team.
Georgia’s Winning Probability
FPM favors the Longhorns, but only slightly. The Bulldogs have a 36.4% chance to win the game, per the metric, translating to an implied spread of about 4.5 points. This game represents Georgia’s toughest challenge of the year and the Bulldogs have a good chance to win out, if they can beat the Longhorns.
Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Texas: 36.4%
- vs. Florida: 93.7%
- at Ole Miss: 64.1%
- vs. Tennessee: 74.6%
- vs. UMass: 99.9%
- vs. Georgia Tech: 89.0%
Texas’ Winning Probability
Conversely, the Longhorns have a 63.6% chance to win the game, per the metric, translating to an implied spread of about 4.5 points. This game represents Texas’ toughest challenge of the year, and the Longhorns have a good chance to go undefeated if they can beat the Bulldogs.
Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Georgia: 63.6%
- at Vanderbilt: 89.1%
- vs. Florida: 93.4%
- at Arkansas: 91.3%
- vs. Kentucky: 93.1%
- at Texas A&M: 74.9%
Prediction for Georgia vs. Texas
After watching both teams, I’ve been more impressed with Texas than Georgia, but betting isn’t always about which team looks better.
Georgia’s defense hasn’t been as dominant as usual, but it’s common for a Kirby Smart team to get better as the season progresses. Meanwhile, Texas has navigated a relatively easy schedule.
The Longhorns’ most notable wins are against Oklahoma and Michigan, both of which have struggled offensively. Texas leads the nation in passing defense and yards per pass allowed, but they have yet to face an elite passing offense.
Even the shared opponent between Texas and Georgia, Mississippi State, doesn’t make for a perfect comparison, as Michael van Buren made his first career start against the Longhorns.
It’s worth questioning whether Texas’ defensive success is more about their own abilities or the quality of their competition.
Still, Carson Beck presents a tougher challenge.
While Steve Sarkisian is a strong coach, Kirby Smart ranks among the best in big games. Just like Dan Lanning pulled out surprises against Ohio State, I think Smart and the Bulldogs can find ways to create opportunities on offense.
Texas has been solid offensively, but Quinn Ewers had his struggles against a varied Oklahoma defense. I believe Georgia’s defense could push Ewers into making a mistake or two.
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I expect Georgia to show up looking more like the team that rallied against Alabama after halftime than the one before it.
I see this game as a preview of the SEC Championship. It’s a high-stakes matchup, and I trust Smart in these moments. Lean toward the over, and take Georgia on the moneyline.
Prediction: Georgia 31, Texas 27
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