The 12-team College Football Playoff has added considerable intrigue to the regular season, and that extends to some of the sport’s best rivalry games. While one team may be a heavy favorite in this season’s Red River Rivalry, neither team is completely out of the postseason race and the outcome could shake up the College Football Playoff picture.
In Texas vs. Oklahoma, the winner will leave feeling as if it controls its own destiny, while one particular outcome could have the loser feeling as if the entire season is lost. Using College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter, we can analyze the importance of the Red River Rivalry’s outcome to each team’s season.
How a Texas Win Would Impact the College Football Playoff Race
The Longhorns are favorites of about two touchdowns and if the likely scenario plays out (which doesn’t always happen in the Red River Rivalry), Texas will be in the driver’s seat.
However, the FPM numbers show that this isn’t the most important game of the year for the Longhorns.
The Longhorns, even after a win, would have just under a 27% chance to win out. As the only remaining undefeated SEC team, the Longhorns would make the SEC Championship Game in that scenario; a win there would give them an automatic first-round bye and likely the top seed in the College Football Playoff.
Their odds to simply make the playoff, however, would be among the best in the country, as the FPM gives them an 88% chance to make the CFP with a win, compared to 80.46% currently.
A conference title isn’t as likely, though, as a looming matchup with Georgia means the Longhorns only have a 31.35% chance to win the SEC in their first year, even with a win on Saturday.
On the flip side, a loss essentially eliminates Oklahoma from meaningful postseason play. Per the FPM, the Sooners have only a 0.04% chance to win out if they lose to Texas, given the difficulty of the back half of their schedule.
While it’s possible a 9-3 Oklahoma team could make the CFP, it’s highly unlikely, and its overall chances of being selected given a loss on Saturday are less than a quarter of a percent.
The Sooners wouldn’t be mathematically eliminated from the SEC title race, but a loss Saturday makes that feat extremely statistically improbable, with FPM putting the chances of a conference title given a Red River Rivalry loss at less than 0.01%.
How an Oklahoma Win Would Impact the College Football Playoff Race
A loss on Saturday would hurt Texas, but not nearly to the extent a loss would hurt Oklahoma.
The Longhorns would still have a 52% chance to make the College Football Playoff with a loss, given that the FPM gives them a 28% chance of winning out, even following a loss.
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The Longhorns would still have an 11.54% chance to win the SEC, as that looming Georgia game is still the key to their conference hopes. Basically, losing to its main rival would sting, but Texas still controls its destiny in every sense of the phrase, regardless of the outcome on Saturday.
It’s a long shot, but Oklahoma would have a chance to make national waves after a win on Saturday. With a win, the Sooners would have an 8.7% chance to make the College Football Playoff. The schedule is rough, but that also means there are plenty of opportunities to impress the committee late in the year.
Accordingly, a win still doesn’t move the needle a ton for Oklahoma in terms of winning out or winning the conference. Even with a win, the Sooners would have just a 1.92% chance to win the SEC and a 0.65% chance to win out.
Our model likes the Longhorns, and that won’t change even if they lose a rivalry game.
The Sooners have one last chance to salvage the season — it just happens to be against their biggest rivals and one of the best teams in the country.
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