Washington has faced back-to-back teams with similar offenses, falling to Rutgers but beating Michigan. Now, the Huskies play a third team in that mold, as they go on the road to face the Iowa Hawkeyes.
Can the Huskies make it two straight, or will the Hawkeyes bounce back and learn from Michigan’s mistakes? Find out where we lean in our Washington vs. Iowa prediction.
Washington vs. Iowa Betting Preview
All Washington vs. Iowa odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Oct. 7, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Iowa -3 - Spread
Iowa -2.5 - Moneyline
Iowa -142, Washington +120 - Over/Under
41 points - Game Time
Oct. 12, Noon ET - Location
Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, Iowa - Predicted Weather at Kick
68 degrees, sunny, 10 mph winds - How To Watch
Fox
CFN’s Football Playoff Meter and Vegas are closely aligned on this one, both favoring the Scarlet Knights by about a field goal. With a spread of 2.5 points and a total of 41, Vegas expects an old-school Big Ten rock fight, implying a final score close to 22-19, Iowa.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
There hasn’t been a lot of line movement here. The spread ranges from Iowa -2.5 to -3.5, and the total is between 40.5 and 41.5 everywhere I’ve looked.
Washington’s Winning Probability
Washington has a 42.6% chance to win on Saturday. The Huskies don’t have many games left as a favorite, so they’ll need to steal one to make a bowl.
- at Iowa: 42.6%
- at Indiana:26.2%
- vs. USC: 36.9%
- at Penn State: 12.8%
- at Oregon: 10.2%
- vs. UCLA: 80.6%
Iowa’s Winning Probability
FPM has the Hawkeyes as three-point favorites, giving them a win probability of 57.4%. They have several toss-up games remaining, and if a few go their direction, we could be talking about another 10-2 Iowa team. On the other hand, if the Hawkeyes lose a few, they could end up worse than most Iowa teams in recent memory.
- vs. Washington: 57.4%
- at Michigan State: 61.1%
- vs. Northwestern: 85.9%
- vs. Wisconsin: 53.4%
- at UCLA: 79.3%
- at Maryland: 61.1%
- vs. Nebraska: 52.8%
Prediction for Washington vs. Iowa
Rock band Aerosmith has the lyric: “It’s the same old story, same old song and dance.” That should be the anthem for Iowa football.
The Hawkeyes dazzled by reaching 40 points against an FCS squad and followed with 38 against a very bad Troy team. They even scored 31 points on 334 yards against Minnesota. But against the two best teams on the schedule, the Hawkeyes reverted to the Iowa of old, averaging 265 yards and 13 points against Iowa State and Ohio State.
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Sure, those are two quality defenses, but Iowa hasn’t yet reached 100 passing yards against a Power Four school. Fortunately for the Hawkeyes, they once again benefit from an easy second-half schedule.
But, if they lose to Washington, I’m putting Kirk Ferentz on the hot seat.
Washington faced a very similar brand of football last week, beating a Michigan team that also can’t throw the ball. The difference is that I think the Hawkeye defense is just a bit better than the Wolverines’ unit.
Washington’s defense is quietly one of the most surprising units in the country, holding all six opponents under 25 points. They haven’t faced any particularly good offenses, but that won’t change Saturday.
However, let’s go back to that Aerosmith lyric. The same old story for Iowa is a bunch of jokes about a bad offense while the Hawkeyes quietly choke out the teams on the back half of the schedule in ugly, low-scoring affairs.
The Iowa defense is stingier than both Rutgers and Michigan, and say what you will about the offense, but at least the Hawkeyes don’t turn it over often. Iowa’s front should be able to slow Jonah Coleman while Kaleb Johnson and the rushing attack can do just enough to eke out an ugly win.
At least it should. If not, go ahead and put Ferentz on the hot seat.
Prediction: Iowa 23, Washington 16
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