Imagine how the story around California would change if the Bears had held onto a 25-point lead in the second half against Miami. Instead, they’re 3-2 overall and 0-2 in conference play, still searching for their first ACC win.
On the other hand, Pittsburgh has quietly kept an undefeated record, going largely unnoticed as one of the least discussed unbeaten teams in college football. With just a five-point average margin of victory against Power Four opponents, can the Panthers keep their streak going? Here’s how we see this California vs. Pittsburgh matchup playing out.
California vs. Pittsburgh Betting Preview
All California vs. Pittsburgh odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Oct. 11, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Pittsburgh -6.5 - Spread
Pittsburgh -3 - Moneyline
Pittsburgh -155, California +130 - Over/Under
57.5 points - Game Time
Oct. 12, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh - Predicted Weather at Kick
68 degrees, sunny, 8 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
CFN’s Football Playoff Meter and Las Vegas vary slightly on this one, both favoring the Panthers by between three and seven points. With a spread of three points and a total of 57.5, Vegas implies the score will be close to 31-27, Pittsburgh.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
There hasn’t been a lot of line movement here. Some books opened at 3.5 points, and that hasn’t changed too much. The total remains between 58 and 60 everywhere I’ve looked.
Prediction for California vs. Pittsburgh
Saturday’s afternoon lineup is packed, but if you’re looking for a game with chaos written all over it, this is the one to keep an eye on. First off, it still feels odd to see California and Pittsburgh as conference rivals. But beyond that, these teams have been incredibly tough to pin down.
Both have found themselves in games where the final score didn’t seem to reflect how things played out. Take Cal, for example: SP+ gave them nearly a 70% post-game win expectancy against Florida State, but then just a 0.2% chance in a narrow one-point loss to Miami.
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Pittsburgh’s season has been equally unpredictable. They’ve eked out three Power Four wins by a combined 15 points, but the advanced metrics suggest those games shouldn’t have been so close.
This makes predicting the outcome of this matchup nearly impossible. Cal has the pieces to run the ball well, yet they sit 80th in yards per carry. Meanwhile, Pitt’s defense has been strong against the run but shaky against the pass.
Pitt QB Eli Holstein is another wild card—he’s made nine turnover-worthy throws but has only three interceptions to show for it. He’s been reckless, but luck has been on his side so far. On the other hand, Cal’s pass defense has been just as inconsistent, alternating between brilliance and breakdowns.
It’s tempting to think one of these teams will regress to the mean, but it’s just as likely that both are still overperforming, making it a real toss-up to see who falters first.
Cal has already made one cross-country trip to face an ACC East team this season, and while the offense stumbled, the defense held firm on the road.
At some point, Pat Narduzzi’s Pittsburgh squad may run out of luck relying on Desmond Reid and the offense to bail them out. I’m taking a bit of a risk here, and I’m not entirely confident, but I think Cal’s defense will do just enough to frustrate Pitt and finally secure a winnable ACC game. One thing’s for sure—this game will be as strange as it is entertaining.
Prediction: California 28, Pittsburgh 26
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