Utah State owns a 19-7 all-time advantage against UNLV, but it’s a new era in the desert. Can the Rebels cover the massive spread in Week 7?
We break down the underrated Mountain West showdown with the latest odds and spread analysis in our UNLV vs. Utah State prediction.
UNLV vs. Utah State Betting Preview
All UNLV vs. Utah State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Oct. 7, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
UNLV -15 - Spread
UNLV -18.5 - Moneyline
UNLV -1000, Utah State +650 - Over/Under
64.5 points - Game Time
9:00 p.m. ET, Friday, Oct. 11 - Location
Maverik Stadium, Logan, Utah - Predicted Weather at Kick
65 degrees, 5 mph winds, mostly cloudy - How To Watch
CBSSN
UNLV’s spread has increased by a point and a half, even if the FPM believes this game could be closer than the sportsbooks expect.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Trend-wise, the over is the play in this one, with it hitting in three of Utah State’s last five games overall and three of UNLV’s previous five contests at home.
The spread also favors the Rebels, with the Aggies 1-4 this season and UNLV 4-1.
UNLV’s Winning Probability
The odds of the Rebels winning in Week 7 — 87.4%. They’ll need the win, too, with Oregon State and Boise State comprising their next two games.
Here are the Rebels’ win probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Oregon State: 55.6%
- vs. Boise State: 51.2%
- at Hawaii: 83.0%
- vs. San Diego State: 89.8%
- at San Jose State: 79.6%
- vs. Nevada: 92.1%
Utah State’s Winning Probability
Utah State’s 12.6% win probability against UNLV is disheartening, but it’s not even the lowest on their remaining schedule.
Here are the Aggies’ win probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. New Mexico: 49.4%
- at Wyoming: 50.6%
- at Washington State: 9.2%
- vs. Hawaii: 50.6%
- vs. San Diego State: 50.4%
- at Colorado State: 38.1%
Prediction for UNLV vs. Utah State
If Utah State’s defense is a sieve, ranking in the bottom 10 in yards (483.2, sixth) and points (41.4, fourth) per game allowed, then UNLV’s offense is a kitchen faucet just waiting to be opened.
The Rebels have piled on the points all season, averaging 44 per game (ninth) and seamlessly transitioning from Matthew Sluka to Hajj-Malik Williams under center. In fact, they’ve been even better with the Campbell transfer in the lineup, as he’s completed nearly 40% more of his passes at 4.4 more yards per attempt.
Star WR Ricky White III has been the biggest beneficiary, putting up a 10-127-2 receiving line against Fresno State and a 10-135-1 line against Syracuse.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Yet, it’s UNLV’s rushing attack that should strike fear in Utah State’s heart. Their 66.7% run rate is the fourth-highest in the nation, while the 5.7 yards per rush are tied for 12th. Where do the Aggies rank in rushing yards conceded per contest? At 126th, with 238.5 YPG.
Needing to win convincingly in the rest of their matchups to even have a chance of cracking the College Football Playoff, expect the Rebels to run up the score as much as possible. The Aggies won’t pull off the upset, but they’ve scored 21+ points in all but one game this season, signaling the over as the play.
Prediction: UNLV 48, Utah State 24
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