BYU was supposed to be a Big 12 bottom-dweller. The Cougars were supposed to be a tough out for a quarter or two before they rolled over in the second half. Instead, they’re College Football Playoff contenders, ranked inside the top 15, and they’ve already eclipsed their preseason win total.
While some were more bullish on the Arizona Wildcats, Las Vegas had them at 5.5 total wins, and they’re trending in that direction, with a few superstars and a general lack of depth. Can they steal one in Provo, Utah? Find out in our Arizona vs. BYU prediction.
Arizona vs. BYU Betting Preview
All Arizona vs. BYU odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Oct. 7, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
BYU -2.5 - Spread
BYU -4.5 - Moneyline
BYU -198, Arizona +164 - Over/Under
49.5 points - Game Time
Oct. 12, 4 p.m. ET - Location
LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, Utah - Predicted Weather at Kick
75 degrees, cloudy, 6 mph winds - How To Watch
Fox
CFN’s Football Playoff Meter and Vegas vary a bit on this one, with the latter favoring BYU by more than four points while FPM has the Cougars by less than a field goal. With a spread of 4.5 points and a total of 49.5, Vegas implies the score will be close to 27-23, BYU.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
The spread just opened, but it’s moving in favor of BYU. In fact, it moved from four to 4.5 points while I was writing this prediction. It opened at BYU -3.5 and has already moved to 4.5. It might not be done either, so spoiler, but get in quick because that’s where I side.
Arizona’s Winning Probability
Arizona has a 45.7% chance to win on Saturday. As is the case with many Big 12 schools, the Wildcats have plenty of toss-up games that could go either way left on their schedule.
- at BYU: 45.7%
- vs. Colorado: 64.6%
- vs. West Virginia: 58.9%
- at UCF: 62.6%
- vs. Houston: 89.8%
- at TCU: 70.3%
- vs. Arizona State: 70.3%
BYU’s Winning Probability
The Football Playoff Meter is a bit lower on BYU in this one than Vegas is.
FPM has the Cougars as 2.5-point favorites, giving them a win probability of 54.3%. BYU is a favorite in every game except the Holy War this year, and its season is shaping up for an exciting stretch run.
- vs. Arizona: 54.3%
- vs. Oklahoma State: 63.1%
- at UCF: 68.8%
- at Utah: 45.7%
- vs. Kansas: 80.6%
- at Arizona State: 65.1%
- vs. Houston:90.8%
Prediction for Arizona vs. BYU
I’m all in on this BYU team right now. The defensive coaching staff has done an extraordinary job of taking away “that one thing” that each opponent has, forcing opponents to go to their secondary and tertiary options when the primary game plan doesn’t work.
For Arizona, that’s Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan playing backyard pitch and catch all over defenses. While they’ve been able to find success early in the year, the running game and the rest of the passing game have lagged behind.
I don’t think BYU will be able to take McMillan completely out of the game, but if he’s held to 100 yards instead of 150 or 200, it could really hurt the Arizona offense.
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On the flip side, the Arizona defense has been one of the most improved units through the first six weeks of the season, but that doesn’t mean they’ll be able to hold BYU in check. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff and a running-back-by-committee approach have led the Cougar offense to 30 points in four of five games.
The Cougars have multiple options on the outside in Chase Roberts and Darius Lassiter to make it difficult for a strong Arizona secondary to key in on one player.
I certainly think the Cougars get tripped up at least once this season, but I don’t think the Wildcats are the team to do that. I don’t love the value on the total here but would certainly recommend grabbing the Cougars all the way up to a spread of about six.
Prediction: BYU 28, Arizona 20
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