If there’s a team that cannot afford another slip up, it’s the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Any early-season momentum following a road win at Texas A&M was erased by an inexplicable home loss to Northern Illinois that looks worse every week.
The Stanford Cardinal comes to town Saturday, hoping to be the next team to upset the Fighting Irish. Can the Cardinal hold their own? Find out what we think in this Stanford vs. Notre Dame prediction.
Stanford vs. Notre Dame Betting Preview
All Stanford vs. Notre Dame odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Oct. 7, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Notre Dame -18 - Spread
Notre Dame -23.5 - Moneyline
Notre Dame -1800, Stanford +1000 - Over/Under
45.5 points - Game Time
Oct. 12, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, Ind. - Predicted Weather at Kick
68 degrees, sunny, six mph winds - How To Watch
NBC
CFN’s Football Playoff Meter and Vegas vary a bit on this one, with the latter favoring Notre Dame by more than three touchdowns, while FPM has the Fighting Irish by almost 18. With a spread of 23.5 points and a total of 45.5, Vegas has little faith in the Cardinal offense, implying a final score close to 34-11 in favor of the Irish.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
The spread just opened, but the books are closely aligned, as Notre Dame is around a 24-point favorite on most books. The spread hasn’t changed since opening, but the total has ticked down from its starting value of 46.5 points.
Stanford’s Winning Probability
Stanford has an 8.7% chance to win on Saturday. The Cardinal are underdogs in most of their remaining games, and a bowl game is out of the question without a few major upsets.
- at Notre Dame: 8.7%
- vs. SMU: 20.4%
- vs. Wake Forest: 50.8%
- at NC State: 34.3%
- vs. Louisville: 25.1%
- vs. California: 38.9%
- at San Jose State: 51.8%
Notre Dame’s Winning Probability
The Football Playoff Meter is a bit lower on Notre Dame than Vegas is.
FPM has the Irish as 18-point favorites, giving them a win probability of 91.3%. Notre Dame is a heavy favorite in every game, with only the USC game being less than a 65% win probability.
- vs. Stanford: 91.3%
- vs. Georgia Tech: 66.4%
- vs. Navy: 87.4%
- vs. Florida State: 88.6%
- vs. Virginia: 83.3%
- vs. Army: 87.2%
- at USC: 57.4%
Prediction for Stanford vs. Notre Dame
It’s fair to say that outside of an opening win against Texas A&M and a close victory against Louisville, the Irish have looked disappointing this season. In fact, they could have dropped a second MAC game had the quarterback play for Miami (OH) been a bit better.
The plays down the field have been there against a secondary that was supposed to be one of the better units in the country. That’s why the health of Stanford quarterback Ashton Daniels is critical to this line. With him, I think it’s likely Stanford makes this a game. Without him, the Irish are much better off.
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The Irish are slowly finding their rhythm though, and now that Riley Leonard is a threat to throw the ball down the field again after that aspect of the offense was non-existent, Notre Dame has to feel better about their College Football Playoff prospects.
In addition to Daniels’ health, turnovers loom large in this game. The Irish defense is 23rd in forcing turnovers, while the Cardinal are near the bottom with two turnovers a game.
Notre Dame isn’t really built to blow teams out, and this is a big line. The Irish shouldn’t be in danger of losing outright, but 23.5 is a big number, and I side with FPM here in thinking the Irish won’t cover that.
I don’t trust Stanford’s offense, though, so I’m going with a pretty boring Irish win that never looks to be in danger of either an outright loss or a Notre Dame cover.
Prediction: Notre Dame 27, Stanford 10
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