Both South Carolina and Alabama had afternoons to remember last Saturday. Unfortunately for each, they’ll be remembered for the wrong reasons. Alabama became Vanderbilt’s first-ever AP top-five victim, while South Carolina got boatraced by Ole Miss in what many thought was a winnable game.
It’s a new day Saturday and each will be looking to bounce back from disappointing losses, but is there an edge? Find out in this South Carolina vs. Alabama prediction.
South Carolina vs. Alabama Betting Preview
All South Carolina vs. Alabama odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Alabama -18 - Spread
Alabama -21.5 - Moneyline
Alabama -1800, South Carolina +1000 - Over/Under
50.5 points - Game Time
Oct. 12, Noon ET - Location
Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Ala. - Predicted Weather at Kick
71 degrees, sunny, three mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter and Vegas are closely aligned here, with FPM leaning three points more to South Carolina than the sportsbooks. With a spread of 21.5 points and a total of 50.5, Vegas implies a final score close to 36-14 in favor of Alabama.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
The spread opened at -21.5 on Sunday and hasn’t budged all week. Both teams are 3-2 covering the spread this season, so something has to give in this all-SEC encounter. The Gamecocks have covered as an underdog twice during the 2024 campaign but notably failed to cover as a double-digit underdog against Ole Miss last time out.
South Carolina’s Winning Probability
The Football Playoff Meter is a bit higher on South Carolina than Vegas, but don’t expect the Gamecocks to win.
FPM has South Carolina as an 18-point underdog, giving it a win probability of 8.3%. The Gamecocks are moderate underdogs in many of their remaining games this season, suggesting there are upsets to be had, just not this week. The Gamecocks have at least a 22% chance to win every remaining game on the schedule, though pulling off multiple upsets will be tough.
- at Alabama: 8.9%
- at Oklahoma: 26.6%
- vs. Texas A&M: 25.8%
- at Vanderbilt: 38.1%
- vs. Missouri: 35.9%
- vs. Wofford: 35.9%
- at Clemson: 22.6%
Alabama’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Alabama has a 91.7% chance to win on Saturday. The Crimson Tide have one of the largest home-field advantages in the system, and the metric has them as favorites against every team remaining on the schedule except LSU, which it has as a true toss-up.
- vs. South Carolina: 91.7%
- at Tennessee: 50.8%
- vs. Missouri: 80.2%
- at LSU: 50.0%
- vs. Mercer: 99.9%
- at Oklahoma: 79.3%
- vs. Auburn: 93.9%
Prediction for South Carolina vs. Alabama
The good news for South Carolina is that it got its yearly Shane Beamer dud out of the way. Every season, the Gamecocks play so far below their capabilities in a big spot that it’s almost laughable. That’s out of the way; now, the Gamecocks just have to play an angry Alabama team in Bryant-Denny.
The stat here is that Kalen DeBoer is 75-1 in his career at home. The one came in the Covid year without fans. Don’t expect South Carolina to do the unthinkable. But can they cover?
The Gamecocks are talented enough to do it, but I don’t think they will.
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South Carolina’s defensive front is top five in the country, at worst. The Gamecocks probably won’t be able to cover Ryan Williams, but that doesn’t make them special, as no one has shown that ability. But defensively, the Gamecocks can do enough to slow the Crimson Tide.
From a game-script perspective, Shane Beamer has shown that he won’t kick meaningless field goals, go conservative just to run the clock, or sub the backups. Usually, that actually means fewer points in lopsided games as he continues to run the offense. He’s not going to kick a field goal to sneak in a back door cover.
The Crimson Tide shouldn’t have to run a high-octane offense to win, and the Gamecock defense is fairly talented. The problem is that the South Carolina offense is one-dimensional and injured. The offensive line should struggle, and with their No. 1 quarterback, running back, and wide receiver playing at less than 100%, the Gamecocks will find scoring points difficult.
I don’t dislike this South Carolina team — my alma mater and a team I follow closely. But the offense just isn’t good enough to keep the Gamecocks in games against far superior teams, especially on the road.
I think the Gamecock defense plays as well as any we’ve seen against the Crimson Tide, but it’s the Gamecock offense that gets Alabama back on track. Take the under and if you can find Alabama under that three-touchdown threshold, pull the trigger there as well.
The Tide roll.
Prediction: Alabama 34, South Carolina 10
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