When it comes to the Red River Showdown, I always plan to expect the unexpected. This year, the Texas Longhorns are expected to roll at the Cotton Bowl. But if that’s what’s expected, should we be prepared for the Oklahoma Sooners to keep it close?
Here, we break down the ins and outs of one of college football’s most exciting rivalry games as we give our thoughts and picks for Texas vs. Oklahoma.
Texas vs. Oklahoma Betting Preview
All Texas vs. Oklahoma odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas -13.5 - Spread
Texas -14.5 - Moneyline
Texas -690, Oklahoma +480 - Over/Under
54.5 points - Game Time
Oct. 12, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Cotton Bowl Stadium, Dallas, Tex. - Predicted Weather at Kick
87 degrees, sunny, nine mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
CFN’s Football Playoff Meter and Vegas are close on this one, as both have the Longhorns as double-digit favorites. With a spread of 14.5 points and a total of 54.5, Vegas implies a final score close to 34-20 in favor of the Longhorns.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
The spread just opened, but the books are closely aligned, with Texas being just over a two-touchdown favorite on most sites. This game always has a heavy betting handle, so it will be interesting to see how it moves throughout the week
Texas’ Winning Probability
The Football Playoff Meter is closely aligned with Vegas.
FPM has Texas as a 13.5-point favorite, giving it a win probability of 83.5%. The Longhorns are favorites in every game this season, though next week against Georgia represents the Longhorns’ most difficult game.
- vs. Oklahoma: 83.5%
- vs. Georgia: 51.8%
- at Vanderbilt: 90.8%
- vs. Florida: 93.1%
- at Arkansas: 90.8%
- vs. Kentucky: 91.3%
- at Texas A&M: 74.2%
Oklahoma’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Oklahoma has a 16.5% chance to win on Saturday. FPM likes the Sooners, but the schedule doesn’t, as they’ll play four games with less than a 30% chance to win, per the metric.
- vs. Texas: 16.5%
- vs. South Carolina: 64.1%
- at Ole Miss: 29.7%
- vs. Maine: 99.4%
- at Missouri: 48.2%
- vs. Alabama: 26.6%
- at LSU: 26.6%
Prediction for Texas vs. Oklahoma
On paper, Texas is substantially better than Oklahoma. Nevertheless, football games are not played on paper, and there are few rivalry games as unpredictable as the Red River Showdown.
In fact, the lower-ranked team has won five of the last 11 regular-season meetings in the series, including an Oklahoma win last year when Texas finished 12-2 with a College Football Playoff semifinal berth.
That Oklahoma team couldn’t stop anybody. This Oklahoma team can’t score.
Texas has rolled every team it has faced, though the Longhorns haven’t yet been tested in the way the Sooners can test them. The health of Quinn Ewers also looms large, as the Texas quarterback hasn’t played since being injured in Week 3 against UTSA. Arch Manning has performed admirably in his stead, but it’s likely Ewers resecures the starting role if healthy.
Oklahoma’s defense is nasty. It has allowed no more than 25 points in any game this season and is 12th in the country, allowing 16 points per game.
Texas’ offense gets the headlines, but it’s been a complete effort so far. The Longhorns have scored at least 30 and allowed less than 13 in every game so far, with a fifth-ranked scoring offense and second-ranked scoring defense.
Oklahoma can only keep this close by generating pressure, forcing turnovers, and hitting some big plays.
Weirdly, I think the Sooners can do that. Maybe it’s something about playing in Dallas.
The Sooners cannot win in a shootout. Texas knows that, and so does Oklahoma.
The Sooners will do everything they can to make this game ugly. They’ll slow the tempo, lean on the run (both from the running backs and new starting quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr., who has the mobility to cause issues), and try to create turnovers.
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Then again, this game tends to lean into unpredictability.
Factoring that in, I think Texas wins, but it won’t be pretty, and it won’t cover. Take the under and lean Oklahoma against the spread in yet another weird installment of the Red River Showdown.
Prediction: Texas 27, Oklahoma 17
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