The Big 12 is the hardest conference to predict this season because there are few, if any, elite teams. There are also few, if any, terrible teams, and four weeks into the season, there are seven or eight teams with a realistic chance to win the conference and earn the automatic College Football Playoff berth.
However, one team trending in the wrong direction is the Baylor Bears, who will try to stop a skid against an undefeated Iowa State Cyclones team.
Before you decide to bet on the game, find out where we lean in this Baylor vs. Iowa State prediction.
Baylor vs. Iowa State Betting Preview
All Baylor vs. Iowa State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Sept. 30, 2024.
- CFN FPM Spread
Iowa State -11.5 - Spread
Iowa State -12 - Moneyline
Iowa State -520, Baylor +390 - Over/Under
45.5 points - Game Time
Oct. 5, 7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, Iowa - Predicted Weather at Kick
76 degrees, clear, 14 mph winds - How To Watch
FOX
College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter and Vegas are aligned on this one, as both have the Cyclones as double-digit favorites. With a spread of 12 points and a total of 45.5, Vegas implies a final score close to 29-17 in favor of the Cowboys.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
While Baylor is the offense that prefers to play fast, it’s Iowa State’s deliberate offensive approach that has yielded greater results in 2024. The total is a reflection of the Cyclones’ defensive prowess and Baylor’s strong defensive efficiency numbers.
While the spread hasn’t moved much, the total has ticked down a point from opening.
Baylor’s Winning Probability
The Football Playoff Meter is closely aligned with Vegas.
FPM has Baylor as 12-point underdogs, giving it a win probability of 19.4%. That represents the Bears’ lowest win probability of any game remaining on the schedule, as the metric gives them a greater than 33% chance to win every other game this season.
The Bears’ win probabilities for the rest of the season are listed below.
- at Iowa State: 19.4%
- at Texas Tech: 36.4%
- vs Oklahoma State: 39.4%
- vs TCU: 49.6%
- at West Virginia: 33.6%
- at Houston: 57.4%
- vs Kansas: 50.0%
Iowa State’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Iowa State has an 80.6% chance to win on Saturday. FPM likes the Cyclones in seven of their remaining eight games, but only one of them has a winning probability greater than this weekend’s against Baylor.
In what could be a special season, the Cyclones can’t afford to slip up against lesser competition. The Cyclones’ win probabilities for the rest of the season are listed below.
- vs. Baylor: 80.6%
- at West Virginia: 60.6%
- vs UCF: 74.6%
- vs. Texas Tech: 74.9%
- at Kansas: 65.1%
- vs. Cincinnati: 81.6%
- at Utah: 47.5%
- vs. Kansas State: 61.1%
Prediction for Baylor vs. Iowa State
Baylor is 2-3, and if the Bears aren’t careful, things could spiral out of control. The offense seems to have found something in backup quarterback Sawyer Robinson, but losses against some of the better Big 12 teams (if it’s possible to be confident enough in the Big 12’s pecking order to call certain teams better) have taken some wind out of the Bears’ sails.
When at its best, the defense is stingy, but its hard to tell if that’s a result of playing two struggling offenses or if there’s really something there for the Bears. Opposing offenses have run the ball on the Bears a lot, but with little success. On the other hand, opponents aren’t completing many passes, but when they do, the results aren’t great for the Baylor defense.
They’ll really be tested against an efficient Iowa State offense. It’s not the fastest pace you’ll see, but the Cyclones are 39th in both yards per play and points per play.
The Iowa State defense is nasty, ranking third in defensive points per drive and 10th in yards per play.
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Iowa State has been efficient in the red zone offensively, but while opponents haven’t gotten there often, the Cyclones’ defense has been susceptible in their own red area.
From a pure football perspective, this has potential to be an intriguing defensive battle, as the Iowa State offense and Baylor defense each have excellent success rates but struggle with creating (Iowa State) or preventing (Baylor) big plays.
From a narrative standpoint, a hostile road environment against the best defense they’ll see all year could be a recipe for a Baylor collapse, especially with Dave Aranda’s 5-16 record in his last 21 games. If Iowa State pulls ahead early, I’m not sure the Bears have another late comeback attempt in them, especially in Ames.
If that’s the case, Iowa State could slowly add on and cover easily, pushing, but not surpassing the total.
Prediction: Iowa State 30, Baylor 13
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