The Tennessee Volunteers have slowly seen their College Football Playoff hopes rise after beating Oklahoma on the road and seeing several other teams stumble. The road to the playoff continues with one of just two remaining true road games.
Arkansas begins a brutal stretch looking for an upset to earn bowl eligibility. Can the Razorbacks keep it close against a high-powered Volunteer offense and a deceptively strong defense? Step this way for a full Tennessee vs. Arkansas prediction.
Tennessee vs. Arkansas Betting Preview
All Tennessee vs. Arkansas odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Sept. 30, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Tennessee -13 - Spread
Tennessee -13.5 - Moneyline
Tennessee -550, Arkansas +410 - Over/Under
60 points - Game Time
Oct. 5, 7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, Ark. - Predicted Weather at Kick
80 degrees, clear, 5 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter and the Vegas lines are aligned on this one, as both have Razorbacks as just under a two-touchdown home underdog. With a spread of 13.5 points and a total of 60, Vegas implies a final score close to 37-23 in favor of the Volunteers.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Tennessee’s offense gets the accolades, but the defense has been just as impressive. The spread has not moved since opening, but the total has ticked down from 60.5, a trend I believe will continue as the week progresses.
Tennessee’s Winning Probability
The Football Playoff Meter is aligned with Vegas in regards to Tennessee’s chances Saturday, as the metric has the Volunteers as 13-point favorites. That translates to a win probability of 82.8%.
That represents the Volunteers’ third-lowest win probability of any game remaining on the schedule, far behind games with Alabama and Georgia. Tennessee’s win probabilities for the rest of the season are listed below.
- at Arkansas: 82.8%
- vs. Florida: 93.4%
- vs. Alabama: 49.4%
- vs. Kentucky: 87.2%
- vs. Mississippi State: 96.3%
- at Georgia: 34.3%
- vs. UTEP: 99.9%
- vs. Vanderbilt: 95.2%
Arkansas’ Winning Probability
Conversely, Arkansas has a 17.2% chance to win on Saturday. FPM isn’t very kind to Arkansas, and it’s largely because of a schedule that includes LSU, Ole Miss, Texas, and Missouri.
In fact, Tennessee represents only the third-hardest game remaining on Arkansas’ schedule. The path to a bowl game or better will need to be paved with an upset or two, as the Razorbacks have a win probability of less than 25% in five of their remaining seven games.
Arkansas’ win probabilities for the rest of the season are listed below.
- vs. Tennessee: 17.2%
- vs. LSU: 21.9%
- at Mississippi State: 65.7%
- vs. Ole Miss: 24.9%
- vs. Texas: 11.4%
- vs. Louisiana Tech: 89.1%
- at Missouri: 11.9%
Prediction for Tennessee vs. Arkansas
The bottom could fall out on Sam Pittman and Company after failing to win two winnable games early in the year against Oklahoma State and Texas A&M; Tennessee is probably in another class, but can the Razorbacks at least keep it close?
One of the quieter storylines of the season is the strength of Tennessee’s defensive line, a unit that doesn’t get as many accolades but has made opposing quarterbacks miserable all season. The run defense is the best in the country, and the Volunteer defense is allowing just 8.3 points per game.
On the flip side, Tennessee is running the ball at an extremely high clip. In fact, the Volunteers are second among non-service academies in rush rate.
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I have doubts that Arkansas’ defense can do much to slow the Volunteers but even less faith in the Razorback offense to run the ball consistently against this vaunted Tennessee front. That puts the pressure on Taylen Green to be a pure dropback passer.
If that happens, I don’t think Arkansas is going to score much. The Razorback defense has been solid at times this year, and I think Nico Iamaleava could have a few issues.
Accordingly, I think the Volunteers roll, but this is a much better defense than some of the teams Tennessee put up droves of points on in the early part of the season. Once up a few touchdowns, Tennessee will rely on the running game to put it away, and I don’t see the Volunteers putting a crooked number on the board.
Prediction: Tennessee 34, Arkansas 14
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