The Clemson Tigers and Florida State Seminoles are set to meet in what was supposed to be a marquee matchup of the Week 6 college football slate. Instead, their noon matchup looks nothing more than a possible tune-up game for Clemson.
Does FSU have a chance in this one? Or will Clemson run away with it?
Let the Clemson vs. Florida State prediction guide you.
Clemson vs. Florida State Betting Preview
Find how CFN would bet this by using CFN’s Football Playoff Meter. All Clemson vs. FSU odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Sept. 27, 2024.
- Spread
Clemson -9.5 - Moneyline
tbd - Over/Under
tbd - Game Time
12:00 p.m. ET, Saturday, Oct. 5 - Location
Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL - Predicted Weather at Kick
88 degrees, light winds, sunny - How To Watch
ABC/ESPN+
These numbers have been off the board for some time after Florida State’s sluggish start to the season. Earlier in the summer, you could have gotten Clemson for plus money as a straight-up bet, but now, the Tigers are favored by nearly 10 points.
Clemson’s Winning Probability
According to CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, Clemson has a 68.8% chance of winning this game. That puts this line a little below the Vegas line right now, moving to just Clemson -6.5. Therein lies the inherent trouble with betting this game ahead of the Tigers’ Week 5 contest against Stanford and FSU’s game against SMU.
Here is how Clemson’s remaining schedule looks in terms of winning probability:
- @ Florida State: 68.8%
- @ Wake Forest: 74.6%
- Virginia: 82.8%
- Louisville: 64.6%
- @ Virginia Tech: 64.1%
- @ Pittsburgh: 61.9%
- The Citadel: 99.9%
- South Carolina: 75.5%
MORE: Find all these winning probabilities coming from CFN’s Strength of Schedule
Getting by FSU would put Clemson in the driver’s seat to square off against ACC-favorite Miami in December.
Florida State’s Winning Probability
Conversely, FSU’s winning probability against Clemson is down to just 31.2%. That number pushes them to a touchdown underdog at home but it would be more like the Vegas total at 9.5 points on a neutral field.
Here are FSU’s remaining winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- Clemson: 31.2%
- @ Duke: 47.2%
- @ Miami (FL): 10.9%
- North Carolina: 62.6%
- @ Notre Dame: 17.0%
- Charleston Southern: 95.1%
- Florida: 57.4%
It’s a tough road ahead, but this roster and coaching staff should be able to correct themselves to possibly contend for a bowl game if things go to plan.
Clemson vs. FSU Prediction
It’s not a tough game to bet, deciding on which way you feel. Clemson has put forth a dramatic turnaround, but they’ve done this against teams that were rabidly overrated to start the year in App State and NC State.
When Clemson played a defense that ranked anywhere near the top half of any defensive metric — Georgia — they were completely shut down. App State (13th worst) and NC State (7th worst) presented two of the worst scoring defenses in the country.
Florida State’s defense is allowing just 20.3 points per game and sits in the top half, by a slim margin, but is a massive upgrade compared to their last two opponents before entering ACC play.
The biggest question here will be what FSU looks like on offense, as we know their defense will certainly be up to the task.
FSU’s offense ranks 125th in terms of total yards per game and 124th in points per game. That simply cannot stand and will not move the needle for the Clemson defense.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
There is a certain ‘revenge’ factor here if you want to call it that with DJ Uiagalelei playing his former team for the first time. But that goes both ways. Dabo Swinney and Co. get their first chance to expose perhaps the holes in his game that they saw for three straight years with him in the building.
Either way, DJU will have to play a much cleaner game and have a truly five-star performance if he wants to keep up with this Clemson offense that’s firing on all cylinders.
Still, FSU’s defense has proven to be a formidable foe and we don’t quite know if this Clemson offense can keep up against a talented defense or if they’ve only just exposed lackluster units.
FSU’s defense is the difference maker for your wallets, but not for the result.
The Prediction: Clemson 27, FSU 20
We’ll update this prediction as the line moves in the lead-up to the game itself.
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.
