The Fighting Illini are out to prove they belong on the national stage while the Nittany Lions have seemingly rounded into form. One of these top-25 teams will prove they belong and remain undefeated in our Illinois vs. Penn State prediction.
Illinois vs. Penn State Betting Preview
All Illinois vs. Penn State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Sept. 28, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Penn State -14.5 - Spread
Penn State -18 - Moneyline
Illinois +625, Penn State -950 - Over/Under
47.5 points - Game Time
7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Beaver Stadium | University Park, Pa. - Predicted Weather at Kick
66 degrees, partly cloudy - How To Watch
NBC
The spread has been up and down, a perfect metaphor for the excitement of the Big Ten. It opened at -17.5, momentarily jumped to -18 in Penn State’s favor, and returned to its original opening number before settling midweek at -18 once more.
The total has been nearly the same, after opening at 48.5, dropping to 47.5, before bouncing back and settling at 48.
Illinois comes in 3-1 against the spread (ATS), as their only ATS loss was by half a point, barely failing to cover 21.5 against Central Michigan. Penn State comes in 2-1 ATS as their lone loss against the spread was a surprisingly close seven-point victory over Bowling Green as 34.5-point favorites.
Illinois Remaining Winning Probabilities
For the Illini, Penn State was set to be the toughest test of a string of two incredibly important matchups this season. However, the roadmap to 10 victories is clear.
Using the CFN Football Playoff Meter and our proprietary Strength of Schedule metrics, we can clearly see where Illinois has the advantage this year. Here are the Illini’s winning probabilities for the rest of their schedule:
- Purdue 75.5%
- Michigan 37.4%
- @ Oregon 10.9%
- Minnesota 68.8%
- Michigan State 73.4%
- @ Rutgers 52.5%
- @ Northwestern 78.1%
A tough game against Michigan is at least at home, they can take solace in that. If the Illini can sneak by Michigan or surprise Oregon on the road, then 10 wins is no sweat and a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game is even possible.
They could even sneak by Penn State in Week 5.
Penn State Remaining Winning Probabilities
After Illinois, the Nittany Lions may be able to coast into their heavily anticipated matchup with Ohio State. Using the same numbers as above, and looking at these numbers following 10,000 simulations, Penn State’s winning probabilities are clear:
- UCLA 94.5%
- @ USC 63.1%
- @ Wisconsin 80.6%
- Ohio State 48.2%
- Washington 87.8%
- @ Purdue 89.8%
- @ Minnesota 85.1%
- Maryland 91.7%
Now only should Penn State be heavy favorites in all of their games except the OSU contest, they may even be able to flip the script and prove they can be evenly matched against the Buckeyes come time. They get the benefit of the doubt of homefield advantage where it’s notoriously difficult to win in what we can expect are wild conditions.
A lot has to happen, but with how their schedule has shaped up, Penn State’s 11-win season appears as within grasp as a 12-win season does.
Prediction for Illinois vs. Penn State
This line caught me off guard. I expected it to settle somewhere around 10.5-12 points. Illinois just showed they can thrive in a tough road environment and execute on both sides of the ball. While Penn State poses a tougher challenge than Nebraska, Illinois demonstrated what they’re capable of last Friday night.
For the Illini, it all hinges on Altmyer. He’s been making smart decisions, delivering clutch throws, and using his mobility to keep drives alive. His accuracy has been a standout, consistently putting the ball in spots where only his receivers can make a play.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
On the flip side, I’ve been bullish on Allar long before he arrived on campus. He’s got the size and arm strength of an ideal pro-style quarterback, with just enough athleticism to keep defenses guessing. But his struggles with consistency and touch could be tested against Illinois’s defense this year, so it’ll be intriguing to see how he responds to the pressure this weekend.
I’m taking the Nittany Lions to come out on top, but I expect a much closer contest than the spread indicates. Illinois will prove they’re a real contender in the Big Ten this season.
Prediction: Penn State 24, Illinois 14
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