Somehow, we are already a quarter of the way through the 2024 college football season. The expanded 12-team College Football Playoffs are a mere three months away — who will be in it?
Which Teams Have the Highest Odds of Making the Playoffs?
First, a primer on the new-look CFP:
The top five conference champions will earn guaranteed bids, with a conference needing a minimum of eight members to be eligible … *cough* Pac-2 *cough*. The next seven spots will go to the seven highest-ranked remaining teams.
The four highest-ranked conference champions will receive first-round byes, with the first-round matchups being No. 5 vs. No. 12, No. 6 vs. No. 11, No. 7 vs. No. 10, and No. 8 vs. No. 9.
Using College Football Network’s one-of-a-kind College Football Playoff Meter, we explore which teams enter Week 5 with the highest odds of making the dance.
Texas Longhorns – 94.2%
As the AP Poll No. 1 team in the nation, it’s no surprise the Longhorns currently own the best odds of making the CFP. Not only are they 4-0, but they thoroughly embarrassed Michigan 31-12 in a much-anticipated Week 2 matchup, and Arch Manning has been able to play valuable reps while Quinn Ewers heals up from an oblique injury.
Texas’ schedule is relatively “easy” the rest of the way, with home bouts against ranked SEC foes Oklahoma (Week 7) and Georgia (Week 8) viewed as the only stumbling points.
Oregon Ducks – 73.3%
The Ducks stumbled out of the gates with a 10-point win over Idaho and a three-point win over Boise State, but they found their rhythm in a 49-14 drubbing of Oregon State.
MORE: 2024 College Football Power Rankings
While Dan Lanning and Co. have undoubtedly circled their Nov. 12 date with Ohio State, they can’t sleep on late-season bouts with Illinois and Michigan.
Miami Hurricanes – 72.3%
No QB looks more in his zone than Cam Ward right now. Seriously, he’s playing like he has some music blaring through his helmet. But the Hurricanes are more than just the swagger they exude on the field, as they’ve beaten the breaks off Florida (41-17), FAMU (56-9), Ball State (62-0), and USF (50-15).
Can anyone even remotely compete with Miami during the regular season? Louisville? Syracuse? The Hurricanes could enter the CFP without a single close win on their schedule.
Ohio State Buckeyes – 71.9%
The Buckeyes have one of the toughest three-game stretches in the nation coming up: Oregon, BYE, Nebraska, Penn State. It isn’t free sailing from there either, as they’ll face a high-scoring Indiana team and bitter rival Michigan to end the season.
None of that will matter if Ohio State maintains its level of play — 49+ points vs. Akron, Western Michigan, and Marshall while allowing just two touchdowns.
Liberty Flames – 71.2%
Liberty is en route to another undefeated regular season, but the team hasn’t looked nearly as dominant as it did last year. Despite playing low-level competition in Campbell, New Mexico State, UTEP, and East Carolina, the Flames have only outscored their opponents 134-82 through four weeks.
Hurricane Helene canceled the Week 5 duel with App State, but with Western Kentucky and Sam Houston on the back end of the schedule, Liberty needs to elevate its play and find consistency to stay unbeaten.
Tennessee Vols – 70.8%
We knew the combination of head coach Josh Heupel and QB Nico Iamaleava would put up points this year — we just didn’t know how many. Through four weeks, the Vols have averaged 54.0 points per game, the second most in the nation.
Traveling to Oklahoma last week was a litmus test for the program, and Tennessee passed with a 25-15 victory that saw the Sooners bench five-star starting QB Jackson Arnold.
However, that was only the beginning for the Vols. In the middle of the year, they’ll welcome Alabama to town, and just three weeks later, they land in Athens, Ga., for one of the most important matchups of the season.
Ole Miss Rebels – 66.9%
There may be no other team running as hot as the Rebels entering Week 5. Just look at their scores in the first four weeks of the season: 76-0 vs. Furman, 52-3 vs. MTSU, 40-3 at Wake Forest, and 52-13 vs. Georgia Southern.
SEC play begins this week, but there are really only three games that could cause Ole Miss some fits: at LSU, vs. Oklahoma, and vs. Georgia.
If the Rebels can leave that triumvirate with two wins, Lane Kiffin’s squad will be sitting pretty in the CFP bracket.
Missouri Tigers – 66.7%
Have the Tigers been as utterly dominant as the two previously mentioned SEC programs? No, but they are also undefeated with two shutouts on their résumé (51-0 over Murray State and 38-0 over Buffalo).
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Depending on which version of Texas A&M shows up in the first week of October, Missouri may not run into real trouble until traveling to Alabama and hosting Oklahoma in back-to-back weeks toward the end of the year.
Penn State Nittany Lions – 65.6%
After trouncing West Virginia in Week 1 — even with a weather delay — Penn State was nearly upset by Bowling Green. And while I’m as much of a Falcon believer as the next analyst, that game had no business being so close (34-27).
A get-right bout against Kent State was just what the doctor ordered last week, as the Nittany Lions roared to a 56-0 victory.
Yet, a home battle with Illinois in Week 5 will be a better barometer for the team’s ceiling. They also cross the country to take on USC and host Ohio State two weeks later, presenting two critical contests that will define Penn State’s playoff hopes.
Washington State Cougars – 56.3%
The Pac is back!
Jake Dickert has led Wazzu to consecutive 4-0 starts for the first time since 1906-07, and they weren’t empty-calorie wins either.
The Cougars exploded in Week 1, dropping 70 on Portland State. Then, they defeated Texas Tech 37-16 in the Mike Leach Legacy Bowl, upset in-state rival Washington in the Apple Cup 24-19, and outlasted San José State 54-52 in overtime.
If that’s the level of play we can expect from Washington State each and every week, the Cougars will earn a non-conference champion CFP bid. However, facing Boise State and Fresno State over the next two games will either dash their hopes or cement their postseason candidacy.
Georgia Bulldogs – 49.2%
At Alabama, at Texas, at Ole Miss, vs. Tennessee.
Yeah, Georgia’s road to the national championship won’t be easy, especially if the Bulldogs continue to play down to their competition, as they did against Kentucky two weeks ago (13-12). Still, they seemingly have one of those games every year before running all over the rest of their opponents.
If they can stave off a Kalen DeBoer-led Crimson Tide this week, the Bulldogs would gain critical momentum heading into the heart of their SEC schedule.
Alabama Crimson Tide – 40.8%
Despite several players jumping ship after Nick Saban’s retirement, the Crimson Tide’s cabinets remain full, as indicated by its 63-0 rout of Western Kentucky in Week 1. USF posed much more of a threat in Week 2, but after a scoreless third quarter, ‘Bama put any upset worries to bed in the fourth.
After Wisconsin QB Tyler Van Dyke went down with an injury, Alabama’s Week 3 victory was all but sealed. Jalen Milroe has clearly taken to head coach Kalen DeBoer’s QB whispers and has played the part of a Heisman candidate this season.
KEEP READING: College Football Predictions Week 5
Regardless, with six other SEC teams above them on the list, the Crimson Tide will need to maintain their rhythm while receiving some luck to avoid the conference’s cannibalizing later in the year.
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