Fresh off a record-setting performance in Week 3, can the Jaguars upset the Mountaineers?
Check out the latest betting odds, spread analysis, and our final prediction for South Alabama vs. Appalachian State ahead of Thursday’s standalone contest.
South Alabama vs. Appalachian State Betting Preview
All South Alabama vs. Appalachian State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Sept. 16.
- Spread
App State -8 - Moneyline
App State -285, South Alabama +230 - Over/Under
64.5 points - Game time
7:30 p.m. ET, Thursday, Sept. 19 - Location
Kidd Brewer Stadium, Boone, North Carolina - Predicted Weather at Kick
66 degrees, 3 mph winds, showers - How To Watch
ESPN
The total has increased by five points since the opening and became a top-five figure in Week 4, largely thanks to South Alabama putting up 87 on Northwestern State, the most by an FBS team since 1991 and a conference record.
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However, the under has hit in eight of Appalachian State’s last 12 games, signaling a pattern of tighter, lower-scoring affairs.
Despite South Alabama’s offensive explosion, App State’s defense and more methodical pace could keep this matchup from reaching such high numbers.
The Mountaineers are also 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games when favored by 7+ points, while the Jaguars are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 overall.
Prediction for South Alabama vs. Appalachian State
South Alabama and App State have faced off three times since 2018, with the Mountaineers winning all three contests by a combined score of 113-17.
Recent performance doesn’t point to the Jaguars exercising their demons, either. They’ve lost three straight road games when their opponent has won four straight at home.
Still, with a healthy Gio Lopez under center and Jamaal Pritchett on the outside, South Alabama has a puncher’s chance in every game. The defense won’t make it easy, allowing 397 yards and 29.7 points per game against North Texas, Ohio, and Northwestern State.
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The unit’s ineptitude could allow App State QB Joey Aguilar and Co., which has been inconsistent thus far, to finally tap into the potential they showcased last season.
The Mountaineers’ defense has been statistically worse (447.0 YPG and 31.7 PPG), but most of that is due to a 66-20 loss to Clemson in Week 2. South Alabama’s losing streak at the hands of App State continues in our predictions, but the betting play is the under.
Expect a controlled, methodical game from the Sun Belt favorite, keeping the score below the posted mark.
Prediction: Appalachian State 31, South Alabama 18
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