The dawn of the 12-team College Football Playoff (CFP) in 2024 has reshaped the postseason, giving underdog teams more power and opportunities than ever before. For Group of Five (G5) teams, an undefeated season is now the most valuable run a team can have.
With a guaranteed spot for the highest-ranked G5 champion in the new ruleset, the question stands: what happens if a G5 team runs the table? Keep reading as we try to answer this by analysing seeding, matchups, and the slim but thrilling chance to compete for a national title.
Will An Undefeated Group of Five Team Have a Secured CFP Bid?
The 12-team format makes sure the five highest-ranked conference champions secure automatic bids, with the top four earning first-round byes in 2024. Starting in 2025-26, byes will go to the four highest-ranked teams overall, not necessarily champions, though the five top champions will still get automatic bids.
The highest-ranked G5 champion is guaranteed a spot, which is a massive shift from the four-team era, where only Cincinnati in 2021 cracked the field as an undefeated G5 team. In 2024, Boise State (12-1, MWC champion) secured the No. 3 seed as the third-highest-ranked champion, earning a bye due to their No. 9 CFP ranking.
CFP executives in a call today unanimously adopted a move to “straight seeding” for this year’s playoff, sources tell @Yahoo Sports.
Teams will be seeded directly on the rankings, 1 thru 12, eliminating the concept that designated the top 4 seeds for conference champs.
— Ross Dellenger (@RossDellenger) May 22, 2025
An undefeated G5 team, like a hypothetical 13-0 UNLV or Memphis, would claim the G5’s automatic bid, typically as the No. 12 seed unless ranked higher than a Power 4 champion, potentially reaching No. 9 or No. 10 with marquee wins.
An undefeated G5 team, typically seeded No. 10 to No. 12, faces the most challenge in the first-round matchup on the road against a No. 5 to No. 8 seed, often a second-tier Power Four team from the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, or ACC, or independent Notre Dame.
In 2024, No. 12 Clemson (ACC champion, ranked No. 16) faced No. 5 Texas, showing the challenge for a lower-seeded champion. An undefeated G5 team would need a standout performance, something like Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty, who rushed for 2,497 yards in 2024, to beat a higher seed.
Strength of schedule is also important; Liberty’s 2023 undefeated season was dismissed due to a No. 133-ranked schedule, landing them at No. 23.
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Historically, undefeated G5 teams struggled for respect. UCF’s 2017 and 2018 perfect seasons earned only New Year’s Six bowls (Peach Bowl win over Auburn, Fiesta Bowl loss to LSU), not CFP berths, while Florida State’s 2023 exclusion as an undefeated Power Four team sparked a lot of backlash and controversy.
The 12-team format is an answer to this, guaranteeing inclusion for the top G5 champion. However, seeding can still ruin things for the teams. A G5 team must dominate weaker opponents and secure hard-earned wins.
An undefeated G5 team in 2025 could follow Boise State’s 2024 path and potentially win the conference, leveraging key nonconference wins (e.g., Northern Illinois’ 2024 upset of Notre Dame), and hope for chaos among Power 4 teams to boost their ranking.
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