Don’t look now, but the Boise State Broncos are back on a Friday night. After giving us one of the best games of the season a week ago, Spencer Danielson’s team takes on the San Diego State Aztecs in Week 10 looking to extend their lead in the race to the Mountain West Championship Game.
Our San Diego State vs. Boise State prediction covers everything you need to know, from the latest betting odds to both teams’ outlooks as they head into the final stretch of the 2024 college football season.
San Diego State vs. Boise State Betting Preview
All San Diego State vs. Boise State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Oct. 30, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Boise State -18.5 - Spread
Boise State -23.5 - Moneyline
Boise State -2400, San Diego State +1200 - Over/Under
57.5 points - Game Time
8:00 p.m. ET - Location
Albertsons Stadium | Boise, Idaho - Predicted Weather at Kick
42 degrees, 4 mph winds, chance of showers - How To Watch
FS1
Friday night marks the 10th meeting between Boise State and San Diego State, and after winning the last two encounters, the Broncos take a 5-4 head-to-head advantage into the Mountain West matchup. Albertsons Stadium hasn’t always been a fortress for the home team, with the Aztecs winning on the road in 2018 and 2012. Can they cause an upset on Friday night?
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Understandably, Boise State is a significant favorite. That’s been a comfortable position for them to be in this year, winning every game where they’ve been favored. San Diego State has failed to win as an underdog this year. However, they’re 3-2 against the spread in that position, while the Broncos have thrice failed to cover as a double-digit favorite.
San Diego State’s Winning Probability
It’s a new era in San Diego, with Sean Lewis taking over for Brady Hoke. The Aztecs are one win away from matching their 2023 record (4-8), but they’d assuredly prefer besting that subpar number. While win No. 4 will likely allude them this week, according to the FPM, it could be around the corner.
- at Boise State: 8.3%
- vs. New Mexico: 52.8%
- at UNLV: 16.5%
- at Utah State: 50.4%
- vs. Air Force: 73.0%
Boise State’s Winning Probability
The Broncos don’t have a win probability under 80% in their final five games, painting a clear path toward the Group of Five’s spot in the College Football Playoff. However, they can’t become complacent, as we’ve already seen several major upsets this season.
- vs. San Diego State: 91.7%
- vs. Nevada: 92.1%
- at San Jose State: 83.0%
- at Wyoming: 93.6%
- vs. Oregon State: 80.2%
Prediction for San Diego State vs. Boise State
Although SDSU is undefeated in conference play, the wins have come against the 1-7 Wyoming Cowboys and the 3-5 Hawaii Rainbow Warriors.
Last week, the Aztecs played well against an impressive Washington State Cougars team but blew a 26-14 lead, allowing 15 unanswered points in the final frame to lose 29-26. Meanwhile, Boise State secured its most significant victory of the year, defeating UNLV 29-24 on Friday night.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Star RB and Heisman favorite Ashton Jeanty “only” generated 128 yards and a score on 33 carries in the heavyweight matchup, so the Broncos will presumably aim to inflate his numbers in Week 10.
With SDSU ranking 86th in rushing yards allowed per game (159.6), another 200-yard game could be on the horizon for Jeanty.
There’s no need to bury the lead here — Boise State is going to win this game by multiple scores. But can they cover the over three-TD spread? In short, yes.
The Aztecs average the second-most penalty yards per game in the country (90.57) and struggle to convert on third down (33.66%). As a result, they’ll likely need to play catch-up for most of the game with a true freshman (Danny O’Neill) under center.
That bodes well for a Boise State defense leading the nation in sacks per game (5.0). Points will be hard to come by for SDSU, and the Broncos tend to let off the gas, so the under is the play in this one.
Prediction: Boise State 38, San Diego State 13
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