One of the biggest games of the Week 4 slate has had seismic repercussions on the Big Ten predictions.
While the favorite to win the conference in 2024 — according to the College Football Network Football Playoff Meter — hasn’t changed, the entire landscape has shifted after the Michigan Wolverines win over the USC Trojans.
Big Ten Championship Predictions
The CFN Football Playoff Meter (FPM) is a proprietary metric that predicts the outcomes of the rest of the season. It can be used to project win-loss records and the percentage chance of any of the 134 FBS teams winning the rest of their games, winning their conference, reaching the College Football Playoff, and, ultimately, the chance of winning the 2024 national championship.
Below are the CFN FPM percentages for winning the 2024 Big Ten Championship ahead of Week 5:
- Oregon Ducks – 28.51%
- Ohio State Buckeyes – 27.6%
- Penn State Nittany Lions – 20.9%
- Michigan Wolverines – 10.6%
- USC Trojans – 7.7%
- Nebraska Cornhuskers – 2.5%
- Iowa Hawkeyes – 1.1%
- Indiana Hoosiers – 0.3%
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights – 0.3%
- Illinois Fighting Illini – 0.2%
- Maryland Terrapins – 0.1%
- Wisconsin Badgers – 0.1%
- Minnesota Golden Gophers – 0.1%
- Washington Huskies – 0.1%
- Michigan State Spartans – 0%
- UCLA Bruins – 0%
- Northwestern Wildcats – 0%
- Purdue Boilermakers – 0%
Oregon Ducks – 28.5%
After coming close to the College Football Playoff as a Pac-12 outfit one year ago, the Oregon Ducks entered the Big Ten this offseason with the expectation that they’d immediately assert themselves as a title contender. They’ve yet to face a conference opponent, but that early presumption appears to be well-placed with Dan Lanning’s team atop our Big Ten predictions.
The Ducks only rank eighth in the AP Poll Top 25 right now after a less-than-scintillating start to the year, but the CFN FPM gives them a 16.6% chance of going undefeated, helping power their 28.5% chance of winning the Big Ten. However, their chances of winning the conference dropped 5% during their bye on the back of Michigan’s success over USC.
Ohio State Buckeyes – 27.6%
The pressure is on Ryan Day to deliver some tangible success for the Ohio State Buckeyes this season after watching Michigan win the conference crown the last three seasons. Thankfully for Day and the Buckeyes, they have been able to attract some of the top transfer portal talent, recruit to a high level, and retain some of their top talent on the roster using the benefits of NIL.
Through three games, the results have been promising. Ohio State ranks fourth in scoring defense (6.7 points per game) while ranking in the top 10 for scoring (52.3 points per) and total offense (552.0 yards per game). That said, with a resurgent Michigan team looking like they’re about to click into gear, they’ll need to be on their game quicker than in Q1 against Marshall.
Penn State Nittany Lions – 20.9%
You have to feel a little bit sorry for the Penn State Nittany Lions. They’ve been a perennial bridesmaid to Ohio State and Michigan in the Big Ten in recent years. Now they’re free from the shackles of a division that contained both teams, the addition of Oregon stands in the way of Big Ten glory for James Franklin’s team.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
That said, Week 4 showcased that they belong in the conversation, and as Michigan’s win tightens the competition in the conference, the Nittany Lions saw a leap of 5.6% in our latest Big Ten predictions. The Nittany Lions don’t face the Wolverines this year, and with USC looking beatable, that Oct. 12 matchup suddenly looks very winnable for Penn State.
Michigan Wolverines – 10.6%
Was the demise of the reigning national champions greatly exaggerated? After looking unconvincing against Fresno State and Arkansas State and embarrassing against Texas, Michigan entered their Week 4 clash with USC as an underdog but emerged as a phoenix, rising from the flames of mediocrity with a new identity and purpose with which to attack the future.
The CFN FPM only gave Sherrone Moore’s team a 3.7% chance of winning the Big Ten ahead of the matchup against USC. That has now leaped to 10.63% as a Week 5 clash with Minnesota beckons. With games against Oregon and Ohio State on the schedule, they still only have a 1.2% chance of winning out but to quote Lloyd Christmas, “So you’re telling me there’s a chance?”
USC Trojans – 7.7%
USC has the fourth-most difficult strength of schedule in the Big Ten, and after impressing in out-of-conference wins over LSU and Utah State, they fell at the first hurdle of their conference campaign. While there is a potential cannibalization to come with the teams ahead of them — how ironically Pac-12 — the Trojans now only have a 2% chance of winning out, with a projected 8-4 record.
The loss to Michigan cut USC’s chances of winning the Big Ten from 11.7% to 7.7% and left them only a 9.3% chance of making the College Football Playoff after tumbling two places to 13th in the latest AP Poll. Old defensive frailties were exposed by the Wolverines, with Kalel Mullings trampling the Trojans on the ground to the tune of 159 yards, 9.4 yards per carry and two scores.
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